Gold Steady Ahead of Key US Data

Gold prices remains under pressure on Thursday, as the metal is trading at a spot price of $1225.26. In the US, we’ll get a look at retail sales reports and unemployment claims, so we could see some movement from XAU/USD during the North American session.

European finance ministers met in Brussels on Wednesday, but were unable to bridge the gap between Greece and its creditors. The bailout agreement expires at the end of February, and the next bailout payment of about EUR 7 billion is on hold as Greece has declared it will not abide by the austerity steps which are required to receive the funds. Greece is looking for bridge financing until a new deal can be reached, but Germany and the troika have balked at rewriting the agreement. There could be some developments on this front as EU heads of state gather on Thursday to Brussels, including German Chancellor Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Tsipras.

US employment numbers remain solid, as JOLTS Jobs Openings climbed to 5.05 million in December, matching expectations. This was the indicator’s highest level since 2001, and points to more available jobs due to an increase in demand for goods and services. The strong reading follows a solid US Nonfarm Payrolls report for January, which was released on Friday. The key employment indicator improved to 257 thousand in January, up from 252 thousand a month earlier. This easily beat the estimate of 236 thousand. Will unemployment claims follow suit with a strong reading on Thursday? Strong job numbers will increase the likelihood of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in mid-2015, which is bullish for the US dollar.

XAU/USD for Thursday, February 12, 2015

XAU/USD February 12 at 10:35 GMT

XAU/USD 1225.26 H: 1232.93 L: 1219.27

XAU/USD Technical

• XAU/USD has shown little movement in the Asian and European sessions..
• On the upside, 1240 is an immediate resistance line.
• On the downside, 1215 is under pressure. Will the pair break below this level? The round number of 1200 is next.
• Current range: 1215 to 1240

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1215, 1200, 1175 and 1154
• Above: 1240, 1255, 1275, 1300 and 1322

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

XAU/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Thursday. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as gold has posted small gains. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicating trader bias towards gold moving to higher ground.

XAU/USD Fundamentals

• All Day – EU Economic Summit.
• 13:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate -0.4%.
• 13:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate -0.4%.
• 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 282 thousand.
• 15:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.2%.
• 15:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 165B.
• 18:01 US 30-year Bond Auction.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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