NABE Uncertain About US Growth this Year

Business economists are giving a more pessimistic outlook about U.S. economic growth this year for the third consecutive month and uncertainty over the November presidential election has proven to be damaging.

The median estimate from economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics calls for gross domestic product growth of only 1.8 percent, down from the 2.2 percent forecast in March. The outlook for next year calls for 2.3 percent growth.

The survey released Monday also shows the forecast for growth in corporate profits swinging from a 2 percent gain in March, to negative 2 percent in June.

Of the economists surveyed, 57 percent said that uncertainty over the election led them to reduce their expectations.

Doubts about the economy deepened Friday when the government reported that hiring in May slowed to a near-standstill. While unemployment slid from 5 percent to 4.7 percent, the lowest since November 2007, the rate fell for a troubling reason: Nearly a half-million jobless Americans stopped looking for work and so were no longer counted as unemployed.

Employers added just 38,000 jobs in May, the fewest in more than five years.

The surprisingly weak jobs report raised doubts that the Federal Reserve will increase short-term interest rates at its next meeting in mid-June or perhaps even at its subsequent meeting in July. Rates have hovered around zero for seven years and almost everyone had expected the Fed to grow more aggressive this summer.

via Mainichi

Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.