Oil and gold rise, bitcoin consolidates

Oil rises on hopes of further stimulus

Crude prices rose as dollar weakness resumed on fresh prospects of additional stimulus.  Thin trading conditions should make oil prices consolidate near the upper boundaries.  If the headlines on the virus front start to deteriorate in Asia, that could be the excuse for traders to hit the sell button.  South Korea’s daily death toll rose to a record and Thailand warned stricter measures could be coming.

The next big move for crude will likely stem from the January 4^th OPEC+ meeting that should pave the way for another gradual increase in production.  Russia is jockeying for a 500,000 bpd increase in February, but that might be difficult if the lockdown situation worsens globally.

Gold poised to consolidate 

Gold prices are trying to hold onto gains as the dollar softens.  It is all about stimulus for gold and right now the uncertainty remains as to when will we see more.  President Trump’s push to increase stimulus checks to USD2,000 may die at the Senate, but it has helped the Biden administration find out which lawmakers are willing to work with him.  The prospects of more stimulus seem likely, investors will just have to wait until Biden takes office.  Gold prices appear poised to consolidate this week as the shortened trading week will be accompanied with thin liquidity.

Bitcoin volatility continues

Bitcoin appears to be consolidating ahead of another run towards a massive psychological level.  Bitcoin momentum was relentless on the break of the USD20,000 level and that could happen again with the USD30,000 level.  Volatility will remain elevated during the week as thin trading conditions in the past have delivered some of the larger moves.

In past years, after a strong fourth quarter, Bitcoin has often delivered a massive pullback.  That will be tested over the next couple of weeks.

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