Stocks and dollar mixed, cryptos diverge

The aftermath of Friday’s big nonfarm payroll miss saw modest follow-through for the deep cyclical names and banks, while the Nasdaq was dragged lower following a round of analysts’ downgrades.  The Nasdaq didn’t stand a chance today following Citigroup’s downgrading of Alphabet and Facebook to neutral, along with Atlantic Equities rating cut of Intel to underweight.  Wall Street remains in wait-and-see mode over inflationary pressures, clarity over the supply situation in the labor market, and whether the global economic recovery is at risk from the recently classified triple-mutant COVID variant from India.  Fears that the Indian COVID-19 variant, known as B.1.617, can evade vaccines could derail a quicker than expected return to normal for a large part of the world.

US stocks are mixed today as diverging flows remain the trade.  The Dow Jones Industrial pared gains after the European close, while the S&P 500 index turned negative.  The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 index led the declines today.

FX

The dollar is mixed today, but let’s not kid ourselves.  The favorite trade to start the trading year seems to be back, betting against the dollar.  The shockingly low nonfarm payroll report has confirmed the growing belief that the Fed will be lower for longer and that should be very positive for all the high-beta and commodity currencies.  The dollar’s days could be numbered if risk appetite can remain intact and not dragged by persistent COVID-19 concerns abroad.  If euro strength continues against the greenback, the 1.2350 level will provide critical resistance.

Cryptos

The dogecoin army is licking their wounds following Elon Musk’s Saturday Night Live appearance.  Musk sent dogecoin on a wild ride after performing a skit where he called the Shiba-Inu inspired cryptocurrency a hustle.  dogecoin did not go to the moon and Twitter quickly focused on the many whale alerts that showed a steady abandoning of massive dogecoin bets during SNL.  At best, dogecoin’s fate might be similar to GameStop, with a hardcore retail army that remains a believer over the long-term.  The end of the skyrocketing move with dogecoin allows the rest of the cryptoverse to focus back on cryptos with real-world applications.

The love for ethereum continues to grow as many embrace the lead it has with widespread adoption.  Ethereum broke above the USD4,000 level and now calls for the USD10,000 level at the end of the year no longer seem outlandish.

Bitcoin has grown the most and has the hardest path higher.  Bitcoin needs fresh endorsements from Corporate America that signal billions of fresh money into it.

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