US open – Trade war, yield curve, gold, oil

Can markets maintain bounce into the close?

We’re ending a turbulent week on a more positive note, as exhausted traders the world over head into the weekend in a more buoyant mood.

Source – Thomson Reuters Eikon

While I’d like to think there’ll be no more drama in the final hours of trading, I’m just not that optimistic. The calendar may be a little thin but the yield curve inversion has spooked a lot of people this week and that may become very apparent again heading into the close.

At a time of heightened sensitivity in the trade war, we also can’t rely on there not being another escalation. It’s a good thing everyone has alerts on President Trump’s Twitter account or no one would ever get anything done.

There are a few pieces of data coming from the US today, with housing starts, building permits and consumer sentiment readings all due but that’s basically the lot. We had some good data from the US yesterday which aided the bounce without dampening interest rate expectations, so more would I’m sure be welcome today.

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Gold rally weakening

Gold traders clearly didn’t share equity traders optimism on Thursday but it seems to be rubbing off a little today. The yellow metal remains at elevated levels and is struggling to record any kind of significant correction, despite having enjoyed a long and substantial rally.

It continues to trade above $1,500 but you could argue that its performance this week has been a little lackluster, given the risk environment we’ve been witnessing. Perhaps this is the sign of a weakening bullish trend we’ve been waiting for. And just as it enters into the $1,520-1,560 region that was so pivotal six years ago when it last traded around these levels.

Gold Daily Chart

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Trend is not oil’s friend

It’s been a tough month so far for oil as prices crumble in the face of possible recession. WTI is seeing some reprieve today but the bullish case is a little hard to find at the moment given that relations between the US and China looks to be deteriorating, rather than improving. The inverted yield curve has been another kick in the teeth.

WTI is still around $5 from the lows achieved earlier this month which is a relief and may be indicative of a market that’s already a little oversold but the trend is very much not oil’s friend.

WTI Daily Chart

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