The Canadian dollar appreciated on Tuesday as the Turkish lira stabilized following a pledge from the Finance Minister to support the currency. Risk aversion fears had driven investors to seek the safety of the US dollar, but as lira concerns eases emerging markets took a breather. The market had a chance to catch up with Friday’s solid Canadian jobs report on Monday.
The Canadian currency has been driven mostly by three factors: geopolitical tensions, strong growth expectations and NAFTA concerns.
The loonie is trading higher as strong economic indicators have shown the Bank of Canada (BoC) could deliver a third rate lift this year. Trade worries had put pressure on the Canadian dollar, but an administration change in Mexico has unlocked NAFTA negotiations between the US and Mexico. President Trump said that Canada must wait as his preference for bilateral deals is well known. Mexico has reassured its Canadian counterparts that it would seek trilateral agreement.
The economic calendar this week will quiet until the release of manufacturing sales on Thursday and the awaited inflation report on Friday. Higher than expected data would continue to make the case for another 25 basis points rate hike by the BoC.
Risk aversion caused investors to seek the safety of the CHF, JPY and USD, but as the Turkish lira woes appear to have some short term relief those currencies have also given way against the dollar. The Canadian currency stands alone in recovering against the greenback. European exposure to Turkish loans have hit the EUR hard as its the biggest loser of the major pairs despite strong German growth and inflation numbers.
Market events to watch this week:
Wednesday, August 15
4:30am GBP CPI y/y
8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m
8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories
9:30pm AUD Employment Change
Thursday, August 16
4:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m
8:30am USD Building Permits
7:30pm AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
Friday, August 17
8:30am CAD CPI m/m
*All times EDT
For a complete list of scheduled events in the forex market visit the MarketPulse Economic Calendar
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Alfonso Esparza
trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
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