USD/CAD – Canadian dollar slides on market meltdown, U.S data slips

The Canadian dollar has steadied in the Wednesday session, after suffering sharp losses on Tuesday. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3292, down 0.07% on the day. On the release front, Canadian Wholesale Sales declined 0.5%, marking its third decline in four releases. In the U.S, core durable goods orders remained pegged at 0.1%, shy of the estimate of 0.4%. Durable goods orders were dismal, with a sharp decline of 4.4%, compared to the estimate of -2.2%. This was the sharpest drop since August 2017. On Thursday, Canada releases corporate profits and the Bank of Canda financial system review.

A sharp fall in technological stocks on Wednesday sent the Canadian dollar reeling. A staggering trillion dollars were wiped off the balance sheets, and investors responded by dumping risk assets like the Canadian currency. USD/CAD jumped 1.03% on Wednesday, as the pair punched above the 1.33 level for the first time since late June. The nagging U.S-China trade dispute has taken a bite out of both economies, and investors are concerned that the conflict will dampen the current economic expansion. Both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices gave up their year-to-date gains, and further corrections in global equity markets could mean more headwinds for the wobbly Canadian dollar.

There had been hopes that the U.S might ease up on the rhetoric against China, but those hopes were dashed on Sunday, at an Asian-Pacific summit in Papua New Guinea. The meeting ended in discord, with leaders unable to agree on a final communique. U.S Vice President Mike Pence, who headed the U.S. delegation, was blunt in his remarks, saying that China would have to drastically change its trade practices before the U.S. would remove current tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods.

European open – Europe higher in fragile markets

The global rout pauses for breath

Equity bleeding has temporarily stopped

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Wednesday (November 21)

• 8:30 Canadian Wholesale Sales. Estimate 0.1%. Actual -0.5%
• 8:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.1%
• 8:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate -2.2%. Actual -4.4%
• 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 215K. Actual 224K
• 10:00 US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 98.4
• 10:00 US CB Leading Index. Estimate 0.2%
• 10:00 US Existing Home Sales. Estimate 5.20M
• 10:00 US Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
• 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 2.5M
• 12:00 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 105B

Thursday (November 22)

• 8:30 Canadian Corporate Profits
• 10:30 BoC Financial System Review

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Wednesday, November 21, 2018

USD/CAD, November 21 at 9:00 EST

Open: 1.3306 High: 1.3318 Low: 1.3270 Close: 1.3292

USD/CAD Technical

USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session and has edged lower in European trade

• 1.3198 is providing support
• 1.3292 is under pressure in resistance. This line could break in the North American session
• Current range: 1.3198 to 1.3292

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.3198, 1.3099, 1.2970 and 1.2831
• Above: 1.3292, 1.3383 and 1.3461

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