USD/CAD – Lack of data leaves Canadian dollar lower

The Canadian dollar has recorded slight losses in the Monday session, paring some of the gains seen on Friday. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3047, up 0.17% on the day. There are no Canadian or U.S events on the schedule. On Tuesday, the U.S releases CB Consumer Confidence.

The new trading week has started with reports that the NAFTA negotiations are showing progress. The Mexican peso has responded with strong gains on Monday, but the Canadian dollar has been steady. A senior Mexican official said that the issues surrounding the auto sector were “basically resolved”, and President Trump said on Saturday that a deal was near.  A new NAFTA agreement would reduce trade tensions between the U.S and the other two NAFTA members, Canada and Mexico. The auto sector is a key pillar of the Canadian economy, and a new NAFTA pact should boost confidence in the Canadian economy and provide a boost to the Canadian dollar.

Proceed with caution. This sums up the dovish message from Jerome Powell, who spoke at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday. His remarks sent the dollar broadly lower and the Canadian dollar jumped on the bandwagon and ended the week with gains. Powell reiterated that the Fed would continue its policy of gradual interest rate hikes, saying that a cautious approach was prudent. The Fed has faced criticism about its current policy from all sides – some analysts have argued that the Fed has been too aggressive, given weak inflation, while others say the Fed should tighten more quickly, due to the extremely tight labor market. Powell appeared to take a middle approach of raising rates, but slowly. The Fed has already raised rates twice this year, and a September hike is practically a given, with the CME Group estimating the odds of a hike at 96%. The odds of a December hike currently stand at 66%.

Powell, Puppets and Politics

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Monday (August 27)

• There are no Canadian or U.S events

Tuesday (August 28)

• 10:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 126.6

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Monday, August 27, 2018

USD/CAD, August 27 at 8:15 DST

Open: 1.3025 High: 1.3067 Low: 1.3001 Close: 1.3047

USD/CAD Technical

USD/CAD ticked lower in the Asian session. The pair has reversed directions in European trade and moved higher

• 1.2970 is providing support
• 1.3067 was tested earlier in resistance
• Current range: 1.2970 to 1.3067

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.2970, 1.2831 and 1.2733
• Above: 1.3067, 1.3160, 1.3292 and 1.3436

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