USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar at 3-Week High, Employment Numbers Next

The Canadian dollar has posted slight gains in the Friday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2743, down 0.19% on the day. On the economic front, Canada releases key jobs data. The economy is expected to add 17.8 thousand jobs, compared to 32.3 thousand a month earlier. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 5.8 percent. In the US, the markets are expecting UoM Consumer Sentiment to improve to 98.4 points.

The Canadian dollar continues to make inroads against the greenback and is at its highest level since April 20. The Canadian currency has received a boost from strong oil prices, which are around $77 a barrel, the highest level in 3-1/2 years. President Trump’s bombshell announcement that the US would withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, as well as Israeli air strikes on Iranian positions in Syria have raised concerns of supply disruptions and significantly pushed up the price of crude.

Key US indicators were mixed on Thursday. Unemployment claims impressed, remaining unchanged at 211 thousand. This easily beat the estimate of 219 thousand. The US labor market is at near or full employment, which has resulted in a slowdown in job growth due to a shortage of skilled labors. Earlier in the week, JOLTS Job Openings climbed to a record 6.6 million. At the same time, inflation levels remain low, as the Federal Reserve target of 2 percent remains elusive. CPI rebounded with a gain of 0.2%, but this fell short of the estimate of 0.3%. Core CPI edged lower to 0.1%, shy of the forecast of 0.2%. Inflation levels will be an important factor for the Fed in its monetary policy projection, which remains at two more hikes in 2018. According to the CME Group, the odds that the Fed will press the rate trigger at the June meeting stand at 100%.

US CPI takes the dollar off the boil

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Friday (May 11)

• 8:30 Canadian Employment Change. Estimate 17.8K
• 8:30 Canadian Unemployment Rate. Estimate 5.8%
• 9:10 BoC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins Speaks
• 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 98.4
• 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Friday, May 11, 2018

USD/CAD, May 11 at 7:10 DST

Open: 1.2768 High: 1.2774 Low: 1.2731 Close: 1.2743

USD/CAD Technical

USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session and has edged lower in European trade

• 1.2687 is providing support
• 1.2757 has switched to a resistance level after losses by USD/CAD on Friday. It is a weak line
• Current range: 1.2687 to 1.2757

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.2687, 1.2527 and 1.2398
• Above: 1.2757, 1.2850, 1.2943 and 1.3015

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is showing slight movement towards short positions. Currently, short positions have a majority (61%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD continuing to move downwards.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.