USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Edges Higher, US Consumer Confidence Next

The Canadian dollar continues to trade quietly. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2563, down 0.22% on the day. In economic news, it’s a quiet end to the week. The US releases UoM Consumer Sentiment, which is expected to soften to 100.6 points. We’ll also get a look at JOLTS Jobs Openings, which is forecast to fall to 6.11 million. There are no Canadian events on the schedule.

The Canadian dollar has looked sharp in the month of April, posting gains of 2.5 percent. However, there could be some headwinds around the corner, as the US has threatened to attack Syria for an alleged chemical attack on the weekend. The situation has become further complicated as Russia has promised it will shoot down any US missiles aimed at Syria. President Trump had vowed that a strike was imminent, but has since backtracked, to the relief of the markets. Still, Trump is unpredictable, and if the US carries out a military strike, panicky investors could dump minor currencies such as the Canadian dollar. Meanwhile, a fact-finding team from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons has arrived in Syria to attempt to verify if a chemical attack did indeed take place.

The Federal Reserve minutes had a generally hawkish tone, reflective of a solid US economy. All of the Fed policymakers indicated that the US economy would continue to improve and that inflation would rise in the next few months. At the March meeting, the Fed unanimously voted to raise rates by a quarter-point, bringing the benchmark rate to a range between 1.50% and 1.75%. The Fed projection for rate policy in 2018 remains at three hikes, although there is speculation that the Fed could revise the forecast to four rate hikes. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed would likely continue to raise rates in order to keep a lid on inflation, but added that the rate moves would be gradual. A new headache for the Fed is the escalating trade battle between the US and China, which could hurt the economy and raise consumer prices. As for the next two rate meetings, the markets expect Powell & Co. to sit tight in May and raise rates at the June meeting.

Investors to Remain Sensitive to Market Tensions

USD/CAD Fundamentals

 Friday (April 13)

• 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 100.6
• 10:00 US JOLTS Jobs Openings. Estimate 6.11M
• 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations 

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Friday, April 13, 2018

USD/CAD, April 13 at 7:40 EST

Open: 1.2589 High: 1.2594 Low: 1.2552 Close: 1.2563

USD/CAD Technical

USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session and has edged lower in European trade

• 1.2496 is providing support
• 1.2590 is a fluid line. Currently, it is a weak resistance line
• Current range: 1.2496 to 1.2590

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.2496, 1.2397 and 1.2281
• Above: 1.2590, 1.2687, 1.2757 and 1.2850

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is unchanged in the Friday session. Currently, long positions have a majority (57%), indicative of USD/CAD reversing directions and moving upwards.

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