USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Edges Higher, US Housing Report Next

The Canadian dollar has recorded slight gains in the Monday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2663, up 0.22% on the day. On the release front, it’s a quiet start to the week. There are no Canadian releases on the schedule. The US releases New Home Sales, which is expected to jump to 655 thousand. On Tuesday, Canada releases the annual budget. The US will release durable goods and consumer confidence reports. As well, Federal Chair Jerome Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee.

Canada releases its annual budget on Tuesday. In October, the Trudeau government revised downwards the deficit for the 2017-2018 fiscal year to C$19.9 billion. The Canadian economy was steady in the fourth quarter, so the deficit could be even lower. The budget is not expected to show any major spending, so it’s likely that the release will not shake up the Canadian dollar. The Canadian currency lost ground last week, and touched its lowest level since late December.

Jerome Powell took over from Janet Yellen earlier this month, and will be on center stage this week, when he testifies before the House of Representatives and the Senate. After the recent stock markets volatility, Powell may opt to play it safe and keep away from any splashy headlines, which could lead to more fluctuation in the markets. Powell could choose to focus on the strong US economy and the Fed trimming its balance sheet, and steer away from a discussion of accelerating rate policy in order to head off higher inflation.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Monday (February 26)

• 10:00 US New Home Sales. Estimate 655K
• 15:15 US FOMC Member Randal Quarles Speaks

Tuesday (February 27)

• 8:30 US Fed Chair Jerome Powell Testifies
• 8:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.4%
• 8:30 US Fed Chair Jerome Powell Testifies
• 8:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate -2.4%
• 10:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 126.2

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Monday, February 26, 2018

USD/CAD, February 26 at 8:05 EST

Open: 1.2634 High: 1.2665 Low: 1.2615 Close: 1.2663

USD/CAD Technical

USD/CAD has posted small gains in the Asian session but then retracted. The pair has moved higher in the European session

• 1.2630 is providing support
• 1.2757 is the next resistance line
• Current range: 1.2630 to 1.2757

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.2630, 1.2494, 1.2351 and 1.2190
• Above: 1.2757, 1.2855 and 1.2920

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

In the Monday session, USD/CAD ratio is showing short positions have a slender majority (52%), indicative of slight trader bias towards USD/CAD reversing directions and moving lower.

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