USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Edges Lower, UoM Consumer Sentiment Next

The Canadian dollar has edged lower in the Friday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3160. In the US, today’s key event is UoM Consumer Sentiment Index. The markets are expecting the indicator to continue to improve in December, with an estimate of 94.3 points. There are no Canadian events on the schedule.

As expected, the Bank of Canada stayed on the sidelines and left the benchmark rate at 0.50%. The Canadian dollar, which is sensitive to oil prices, was buoyed by the unexpected OPEC production agreement, which triggered a surge in crude prices. The improvement in the Canadian dollar eased pressure on the BoC to lower rates. The BoC had predicted third quarter growth of 3.2%, but the economy beat this projection, expanding at a clip of 3.5%. Meanwhile, Canadian Building Permits rebounded in October with a sizzling gain of 8.7%, crushing the estimate of 1.6%. Housing Starts dipped to 184 thousand, short of expectations.

The Federal Reserve will take center stage next week as the Fed meets for its monthly policy meeting on Wednesday. This will be the first meeting after Donald Trump’s election as president. More importantly of course, the markets have priced in a rate hike at 95 percent, most likely a quarter-point increase. This would mark the first rate move by the Fed since last December, and the US dollar could respond with broad gains after a rate hike. It will be interesting to see what happens early next year, with the Trump administration taking over in Washington. Trump has stated that he plans to increase government spending and cut taxes, which could lead to higher inflation levels. The Fed has indicated that it plans to raise rates gradually in 2017, but this could change once the new administration’s economic policies become clearer.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Friday (December 9)

• 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 94.3
• 10:00 US Final Wholesale Inventories. Estimate -0.4%
• 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Friday, December 9, 2016

USD/CAD December 9 at 6:40 EST

Open: 1.3196 High: 1.3212 Low: 1.3170 Close: 1.3164

USD/CAD Technical

• USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session and has posted losses in the European session.
• 1.3120 is providing support
• 1.3253 has strengthened in resistance as USD/CAD continues to lose ground

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.3120, 1.3026 and 1.2951
• Above: 1.3253, 1.3371, 1.3457 and 1.3551
• Current range: 1.3120 to 1.3253

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is unchanged in the Friday session. Currently, long positions have a slight majority (54%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD reversing directions and moving higher.

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