The Canadian dollar depreciated on Monday versus the US dollar. Oil prices fell as higher production from the US is putting downward pressure on prices ahead of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting on November 30. The production cut agreement between the OPEC and other major producers has added stability to oil prices, but has also opened up the opportunity for Brazil, Canada and the US to increase production.
NAFTA talks are ongoing in Mexico City with comments circling that the talks are close to a standstill as the US is not budging from its America First demands and Canada and Mexico will not introduce a counter proposal to the increase in US content in North American autos. The US could end up losing 24,000 jobs if it stick to its higher US content demands, and it could even be a worse loss if NAFTA is terminated, but that hasn’t stoped American negotiators to stick to their guns.
The loonie started the week under pressure with low oil prices and NAFTA negotiations devoid of any progress. The failure of the German Chancellor to form a coalition set off a sell off in the single currency during the Asian session. Angela Merkel has brushed off her resignation and instead is focused in a new round of elections instead of opting for a minority government.
The USD/CAD gained 0.33 percent on Monday. The currency pair is trading at 1.2812 at the start of a trading week that will be shortened by the American thanksgiving holiday starting Thursday. There are two big Canadian data releases this week. Canadian wholesale sales will be released on Tuesday, November 21 at 8:30 am and later in the week retail sales will be published on Thursday, November 23 at 8:30 am EST.
The U.S. Federal Reserve will publish the minutes form its November meeting on Wednesday, November 22 at 2:00 pm EST. There will be more clues on where certain policy makers stand regarding inflation, but the market is still pricing in a 99 percent probability of a US rate hike in December.
Oil prices fell on Monday. West Texas Intermediate prices are trading at $56.18 after opening at around $56.54 in the Asian session. Higher than expected US weekly inventories have offset comments of an extension to the crude output agreement cut by OPEC and other major producers. The current deal expires in March and while Russia has been supportive they have remained noncommittal which is why the meeting next week is so important to see where all producers stand on an extension.
The rise of the USD triggered by German coalition uncertainty was a negative for crude. Saudi Arabia was not in the spotlight this weekend after the events of the past two weeks have consolidated the power of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Russia and Saudi Arabia remain the core of the production cut agreement and compliance. If Russia pledges an extension to the deal, it is expected the OPEC members and the other 10 non-OPEC will follow suit.
Market events to watch this week:
Monday, November 20
7:30 pm AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Tuesday, November 21
4:05 am AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
6:00 pm USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
Wednesday, November 22
8:30 am USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
8:30 am USD Unemployment Claims
10:30 am USD Crude Oil Inventories
2:00 pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
4:45 pm NZD Retail Sales q/q
Thursday, November 23
4:30 am GBP Second Estimate GDP q/q
8:30 am CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
11:30 am CHF SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
*All times EDT
For a complete list of scheduled events in the forex market visit the MarketPulse Economic Calendar
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Alfonso Esparza
trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
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