USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Ticks Lower, US Jobless Claims Next

The Canadian dollar is showing little movement on Thursday, after a volatile session on Wednesday. Currently, the pair is trading at the 1.34 level. In economic news, OPEC members reached a production cap deal. In the US, it’s a busy day, with two key events – unemployment claims and ISM Manufacturing PMI. Employment indicators will be in the spotlight on Friday, highlighted by US Nonfarm Payrolls and the Canadian Employment Change. Traders should be prepared for some movement from USD/CAD on Friday.

There was the usual drama and fluctuations in oil prices ahead of another OPEC meeting, but this time there was a surprise ending. OPEC announced that it had reached a production cut agreement. One of the major sticking points had been Iran’s insistence to maintain output at pre-sanction levels. Saudi Arabia swallowed hard and accepted Iran’s demand, paving the path for a production agreement by OPEC since 2008. US crude has surged 16.6% this week, buoyed by the agreement to cut oil production. The deal should reduce the worldwide glut of oil and stabilize oil prices, on the assumption that OPEC members do not cheat on their production quotas. The surprise deal initially sent the Canadian dollar higher, but it could not consolidate and ended the Wednesday session unchanged.

US indicators impressed on Tuesday. Preliminary GDP sparkled in the third quarter, as the economy expanded 3.2%, above the forecast of 3.0%. The 3.2% gain was an upwards revision of Advance GDP, which came in at 2.9%. Solid consumer confidence numbers have been a critical factor in the US recovery, as an optimistic consumer is likely to go out and spend money. CB Consumer Confidence jumped to 107.1 points in November, surpassing the 100-level for the third time in four months. Last week, UoM Consumer Sentiment jumped to 93.8 points, its highest level since May. Donald Trump’s surprise election victory has not had an adverse effect on consumer confidence, and if these rosy numbers translate into stronger consumer spending, the US dollar could continue to climb against its rivals.

US Q3 GDP Revised Upward on Consumer Spending

Saudi’s Accept Big Hit in OPEC Output Deal

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Thursday (December 1)

• 7:30 US Challenger Job Cuts
• 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 252K
• 9:30 Canadian RBC Manufacturing PMI
• 9:45 US Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 53.9
• 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 52.1
• 10:00 US Construction Spending. Estimate 0.6%
• 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices. Estimate 52.0
• 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -52B
• All Day – US Total Vehicle Sales

Upcoming Key Events

Friday (December 2)

• 8:30 Canadian Employment Change. Estimate 0.1K
• 8:30 Canadian Unemployment Rate. Estimate 7.0%
• 8:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Estimate 0.2%
• 8:30 US Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 165K
• 8:30 US Unemployment Rate. Estimate 4.9%

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Thursday, December 1, 2016

USD/CAD December 1 at 8:00 EST

Open: 1.3425 High: 1.3437 Low: 1.3377 Close: 1.3408

USD/CAD Technical

• USD/CAD posted slight losses in the Asian session and has rebounded in European trade
• 1.3371 is under pressure in support
• 1.3457 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.3371, 1.3253 and 1.3120
• Above: 1.3457, 1.3551, 1.3648 and 1.3782
• Current range: 1.3371 to 1.3457

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is showing slight movement towards short position. Currently, short positions command a strong majority (60%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD continuing to move to lower ground.

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