USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Unchanged Ahead of Crude Inventories and Trump Speech

The Canadian dollar is unchanged in the Wednesday session. Early in the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3250. On the release front, there are no Canadian events on the schedule. In the US, Crude Oil Inventories is expected to post a surplus of 0.9 million barrels. As well, president-elect Donald Trump will host a press conference later in the day. On Thursday, the US releases unemployment claims, with the indicator expected to rise to 266 thousand.

With only a handful of events on the Wednesday schedule, the markets will be keeping a close eye on the Trump show later in the day. Trump will host a press conference out of the Trump Towers in New York City. Trump hasn’t spoken formally with the press in six months, choosing instead to send pithy and often controversial comments on his Twitter account. The president-elect had plenty to say about the ills of the US economy on the campaign trail, but was short on specifics. He has gone on record promising tax cuts and significant fiscal spending to repair the country’s infrastructure. Trump has said he will implement protectionist policies, which has lessened investors’ appetite for risk. The markets will be hoping for more specifics about economic policy, with just over a week until Inauguration Day. The US dollar has climbed sharply since mid-November, as the US economy sails full steam ahead in 2017.

Canada and the US both released key job data on Friday, and there was positive news on both sides of the border. Canadian Employment Change sparkled with a gain of 53.7 thousand, crushing the forecast of -5.1 thousand. In the US, wages rebounded in December, as Average Hourly Earnings climbed 0.4%, edging above the estimate of 0.3%. This marked a strong turnaround after the November reading of -0.1%. The news was not as bright from Nonfarm Payrolls, which dropped to 156 thousand, well off the estimate of 175 thousand. This was the key indicator’s weakest showing in 3 months.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Wednesday (January 11)

• 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 0.9M
• 11:00 President-Elect Trump Speech
• 13:01 US 10-year Bond Auction
• 13:20 US FOMC Member William Dudley Speech

Thursday (January 12)

• 8:30 Canadian NHPI. Estimate 0.3%
• 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 266K

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Wednesday, January 11, 2017

USD/CAD January 11 at 8:25 EST

Open: 1.3244 High: 1.3254 Low: 1.3215 Close: 1.3248

USD/CAD Technical

• USD/CAD has showed little movement in the Asian and European sessions
• 1.3120 is providing support
• 1.3253 is a weak resistance line. It could break in the North American session

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.3120, 1.3003 and 1.2922
• Above: 1.3253, 1.3371, 1.3457 and 1.3589
• Current range: 1.3120 to 1.3253

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is almost unchanged in the Wednesday session. Currently, long positions have a majority (63%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD breaking out and moving higher.

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