USD/CAD – Little Movement As Syrian Crisis Eases

USD/CAD is showing very little movement in Wednesday trading. The pair continues to trade in the mid-1.03 range early in the North American session. President Obama addressed the nation about the Syrian crisis, saying that the US was postponing military action while there was a possibility that a diplomatic solution could be reached. In economic news, the US posted another weak employment release on Tuesday, as US JOLTS Jobs Openings fell short of the estimate. On Wednesday, the US will release Wholesale Inventories and Crude Oil Inventories. There are no Canadian releases on the schedule.

The Syrian crisis has taken on a new twist, as the US and Russia are looking for a diplomatic solution to the crisis. Under the proposed plan, Syria would destroy its entire arsenal of chemical weapons. President Obama spoke on US television on Monday and said that he would delay any military action as long as a diplomatic solution was possible, but that a strike against Syria was still on the table. If the diplomatic efforts gain momentum and the crisis eases, we could see the safe-haven dollar lose ground.

QE tapering continues to be a hot topic, but recent weak US employment numbers may cause a delay. Tuesday’s JOLTS Job Openings looked weak, coming in at 3.69 million, way off the estimate of 3.96 million. Last week’s Non-Farm Payrolls came in at 169 thousand, missing the estimate of 178 thousand. The Unemployment Rate dropped from 7.4% to 7.3%, but this improvement is not all that significant, given the low participation rate in the labor force. There has been talk of the Fed reducing QE as early as September, but we’re unlikely to see any action if employment numbers don’t improve. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans has hinted that we could see some action on this front from the Fed before the end of the year.

In Canada, employment markets woes continues to concern the markets. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said that the government is expecting “modest” job creation in 2013, but this may be an overly optimistic view. Manpower Canada, a prominent workforce consultancy group, stated in a fourth-quarter survey that job creation is stagnant. Manpower said that low productivity and high labor costs are weighing on the labor markets and taking a heavy toll on the Canadian economy.

USD/CAD for Wednesday, September 11, 2013

USD/CAD 1.0343 H: 1.0365 L: 1.0332

USD/CAD Technical

• USD/CAD is showing little movement in Wednesday trading. The pair touched a high of 1.0365 late in the Asian session and has edged lower since then.
• The pair is testing support at 1.0337. This line could fall if the Canadian dollar resumes its downward movement. This is followed by support at 1.0282.
• USD/CAD continues to face resistance at 1.0442. This is followed by a resistance line at 1.0502.
• Current range: 1.0337 to 1.0442

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.0337, 1.0282, 1.0224 and 1.0158
• Above 1.0442, 1.0502, 1.0573, 1.0652 and 1.0758

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is pointing to movement towards long positions. This is not reflected in the current movement of the pair, which is bound in a narrow range in Wednesday trading. The ratio is currently made up of a slight majority of long positions, the first time we have seen this seen early August. This shift is due to the strong gains posted by the Canadian dollar in September.

USD/CAD continues to trade in the mid-1.03 range, its lowest level since mid-August. With no major releases scheduled on Wednesday, it we could see the pair continue to drift in the North American session.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

• 14:00 US Wholesale Inventories. Estimate 0.3%.
• 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -2.2M.
• 17:00 US 10-year Bond Auction.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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