USD/JPY – Little Movement Ahead of Unemployment Claims

USD/JPY has edged lower on Thursday, as the pair trades in the mid-101 range. In economic news, Federal Reserve head Janet Yellen will testify before a Senate Committee. Today’s key release is Unemployment Claims, with the markets expecting a turnaround following last week’s poor performance. There are no Japanese releases on Thursday.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testified before Congress’ Economic Joint Committee on Wednesday, and gave a cautious thumbs-up to the economic recovery. She said that the economy has improved, but pointed to two sore spots – the job market remains weak and inflation is below the Fed’s target of 2%. Yellen stated that she therefore expects that low interest rate levels will continue for a “considerable time”. Yellen has stated previously that slack remains in the economy, and the Fed is expected to proceed carefully with future trims to its QE scheme. Since December, the Fed has trimmed the asset-purchase program by almost half, cutting it to $45 billion each month.

Earlier in the week, the Bank of Japan released minutes of its last policy meeting. Bank policymakers expressed concern that the economic recovery is exerting some upward pressure on prices, but the rise might not be enough to hit the BOJ’s inflation target of 2%. The economy seems to have weathered the April sales hike nicely, and Household Spending posted a sharp gain in April, pointing to strong consumer spending. With inflation indicators continuing to point higher, the government will be focusing more attention on the nation’s staggering debt load, which is in excess of $10 trillion dollars.

USD/JPY for Thursday, May 8, 2014

USD/JPY May 8 at 12:55 GMT

USD/JPY 101.81 H: 101.95 L: 101.68

USD/JPY Technical

• USD/JPY has edged lower in Thursday trade.
• On the upside, 102.53 is the next line of resistance.
• 101.19 is providing support. This is followed by support at the key level of 100.00.
• Current range: 101.19 to 102.53

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 101.19, 100.00, 99.57 and 98.97.
• Above: 102.53, 103.07, 104.17, 105.70 and 106.85.

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/JPY ratio is pointing to gains in short positions in Thursday trade, reversing the direction seen a day earlier. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as the yen has posted modest gains. The ratio is made up of a substantial majority of long positions, indicating trader bias towards the dollar reversing directions and moving upwards.

The pair has edged lower on Thursday. USD/JPY is unchanged in the European session.

USD/JPY Fundamentals

• 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 328K.
• 13:30 US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Testifies Before Senate Budget Committee.
• 13:30 US FOMC Member Daniel Tarullo Speaks.
• 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 71B.
• 17:01 US 30-year Bond Auction.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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