USD/JPY – Steady After BOJ Minutes

The yen is steady in Tuesday trading, as USD/JPY has edged lower and is trading in the mid-101 range. In economic news, the Bank of Japan released the minutes of its most recent policy meeting, with some policymakers questioning whether the 2% inflation target will be achieved. Meanwhile, the Corporate Services Price Index, a minor inflation indicator, continues to climb, and posted a 0.8% gain, slightly lower than the 0.9% estimate. In the US, Pending Home Sales was a disappointment, with the key indicator posting its fifth decline in row. On Tuesday, the US will release two major events – Building Permits and CB Consumer Confidence. There are no Japanese releases on Tuesday.

The week got off to a disappointing start as US Pending Home Sales posted a decline of -0.6%, well off the estimate of 2.2%. The key indicator has now posted five straight declines, pointing to trouble in the housing sector. We’ll get a look at Building Permits on Tuesday. The release will include September and October numbers, as the former were not published due to the government shutdown last month.

In Japan, the BOJ released the minutes from the last policy meeting, and some policymakers expressed their uneasiness about inflation numbers. Although we are seeing inflation in the economy, there is concern that the Bank’s 2% inflation target may not be met anytime soon. Several of the Bank’s policymakers dissented with some parts of the Bank’s October outlook report, and said that they see a greater downside risk to the economy. These sentiments could weigh on the yen, which continues to struggle.

Low inflation indicators have been a major concern in Japan and the Eurozone, and the US economy is not immune from this problem, as underscored by inflation readings for October. The Producer Price Index continues to look weak, posting a decline of 0.2% in October. This was the index’s second straight decline. Core CPI showed a weak gain of 0.1%, and CPI dipped to -0.1%. These weak numbers point to slow economic activity and slow economic growth in the US.

USD/JPY for Tuesday, November 26, 2013

USD/JPY November 26 at 12:30 GMT

USD/JPY 101.43 H: 101.61 L: 101.34

USD/JPY Technical

• USD/JPY is steady on Tuesday, trading close to the 101.50 line.
• The pair continues to face resistance at 102.53. This is followed by a resistance line at 103.30, which has remained intact since late May.
• 101.19 is providing support. This line could face pressure if the yen shows any improvement. It is followed by support at the key line of 100.
• Current range: 101.19 to 102.53

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 101.19, 100.00, 98.92, 98.15, 97.18 and 96.00
• Above: 102.53, 103.30, 104.17 and 105.70

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/JPY ratio is unchanged on Tuesday. This lack of movement is reflected in the current movement of the pair, as the pair trades quietly. The ratio is close to an even split between long and short positions, which reflects a lack of trader bias as to which direction the pair might take.

The pair is steady in Tuesday trading. With the US releasing key consumer confidence and construction data later in the day, we could see some volatility from USD/JPY.

USD/JPY Fundamentals

• 13:30 US Building Permits. Estimate. 0.94M.
• 13:30  September Data – US Building Permits. Estimate 0.94M.
• 14:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Estimate 13.0%.
• 14:00 US HPI. Estimate 0.5%.
• 15:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 72.2 points.
• 15:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. Estimate 3 points.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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