USD/SGD Slightly Higher, Singapore Unemployment, Retail Sales Next

USD/SGD has posted slight gains on Monday, following sharp losses in the Friday session. On the release front, it’s a busy day in Singapore, which releases the Unemployment Rate, followed by Retail Sales early on Tuesday. There are no US releases on Monday, but on Tuesday we’ll get a look at Retail Sales and PPI reports, with the markets bracing for small declines from these indicators.

The China slowdown of 2016 has hurt the Singapore economy, as the Asian giant is a major export for Singapore. Still, employment remains close to full capacity, and the third quarter reading sparkled at a levels of 1.9%. Singapore will release the unemployment rate for Q4 later on Monday, followed by Retail Sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending. The previous reading came in at a respectable 1.4%. Any significant movement from these key indicators could have an impact on the movement of USD/SGD.

Monday is an off-day for US releases, but after that the week will be busy, which could spell significant volatility in the currency markets. The US will release inflation and retail sales reports on Tuesday, followed by the FOMC policy statement. Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates? Most experts say no, given current economic conditions. The economy continues to expand, although growth has been softer in 2016 compared to the red-hot pace which marked the economy in H2 of 2015. The primary trouble spot in the economy is the inflation picture, as inflation levels remains very low, a result of weak global demand and low oil prices. The cautious Fed will likely wait until mid-2016, and seriously consider a rate hike if the US economy shows that it is gaining steam.

USD/SGD Fundamentals

Monday (March 14)

• 22:30 Singapore Unemployment Rate

Tuesday (March 15)

• 1:00 Singapore Retail Sales
• 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate -0.2%
• 8:30 US PPI. Estimate -0.2%
• 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate -0.1%

*Key events are in bold

*All release times are EST

USD/SGD for Monday, March 14, 2016

USD/SGD March 14 at 11:10 EST

Open: 1.3739 Low: 1.3705  High: 1.3769 Close: 1.3768

USD/SGD Technical

• 1.3810 is a resistance line
• 1.3721 is providing support
• Current range: 1.3721 to 1.3810

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.3721, 1.3639 and 1.3535
• Above: 1.3810, 1.3927 and 1.4016

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