EUR/USD has been close to the 1.36 this week. The United States released mixed economic indicators. Unemployment claims was slightly lower which boosts some confidence ahead of July 3rd’s Non-farm payroll release. The NFP figure will be released a day early that their regular schedule because of the Independence Day 4th of July holiday on Friday.
The biggest shock came this week with an expected 1.8% decline due to bad weather, the first quarter GDP number was released for a contraction of 2.9%. The EUR did not seize the opportunity to make much inroads agains the USD as there was some negative releases in Europe as well. Germany continues to be the engine of growth in the EU, but France and Italy continue to sound warning bells.
CANADA
Canada’s manufacturing sector showed a drop in inflation in May, indicative of decreased activity in this important industry. The Raw Materials Price Index has been dropping, and the downward trend continued in May, as the index came in at –0.4%, way off the estimate of +1.3%. The Industrial Product Price Index followed suit with a reading of –0.5%, compared to the estimate of +0.4%. These are the first Canadian releases of the week, and the loonie has posted gains this week against the US dollar thanks to some weak US numbers, notably the Q1 GDP.
The CAD continues to appreciate versus the USD and has taken advantage of positive commodity prices and USD negative economic releases. The USD/CAD started the week at 1.0854 and will finish in the vicinity of 1.0750.
Next Week For Americas:
July 3rd is a release heavy day. That’s the date the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report will be issued one day earlier than usual because of Friday’s July 4 holiday. Also on July 3, Canada and the U.S. will publish their respective trade numbers, and there will be a European Central Bank rate decision and press conference. As if that wasn’t enough data to make an investor’s head spin, the U.K. services purchasing managers index (PMI), an American jobless claims report, and the Institute of Supply Management’s non-manufacturing PMI are all due on the same date.
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- Canada Industrial Prices Fall in May – MarketPulse
- DB Cuts Global Growth Outlook to 2.3% – MarketPulse
- U.S. Dollar Lower after Weak U.S. Spending Data – MarketPulse
- Fed’s Bullard: U.S. Economy Strong Enough for Rate Rises – MarketPulse
- CAD Rises After US Weak Consumer Spending – MarketPulse
- Fed’s Bullard Says US Job Growth Ahead of Schedule – MarketPulse
- US Consumer Spending Lower than Expected – MarketPulse
- US Jobless Claims Fall Slightly This Week – MarketPulse
- Brazil Situation Highlights Emerging Market Dilemma – MarketPulse
- Energy and Commodities Stocks Boost Canadian Stock Market – MarketPulse
- Brazil Elections Polls Show Dissatisfaction But Still Point to Reelection – MarketPulse
- Fed’s Yellen Could Prioritize Wage Recovery Ahead of Inflation – MarketPulse
- US Mortgage Applications Fell According to MBA – MarketPulse
- US Fed’s Dudley Says Mid 2015 Rate Reasonable – MarketPulse
- US Durable Goods Fall in May – MarketPulse
- US GDP Shrank 2.9% in Q1 Due to Bad Weather – MarketPulse
- US House Prices Rise At Slow Pace in April – MarketPulse
- Fed Member Plosser Says Economy Recovering Faster Than Expected – MarketPulse
- US Fed Seen As Inflation Complacent – MarketPulse
- Structural Reform Key to Mexico Says El-Erian – MarketPulse
- U.S. Treasuries Sale Set for Highest Yield in Three Years – MarketPulse
- CAD Rises After China PMI Expansion Figures – MarketPulse
WEEK AHEAD
* EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index * CAD Gross Domestic Product * CAD GDP * AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision * USD ISM Manufacturing * EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision * USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls * USD Unemployment Rate
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Alfonso Esparza
trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
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