Week in FX Americas – Is the Loonie and ‘Big’ Dollar Move for Real?

No one was close to reporting the North America jobs numbers. Canada and the US headlines blew all forecasts out of the water, and for the time being have convinced the market that they need to buy North America.

Both countries’ released improved unemployment rates. The downtick to the US unemployment rate to +7.7% from +7.9% can partly be attributed to Americans dropping out of the workforce. Analysts note that the participation rate fell to +63.5% last month from +65.6%, which is now officially the lowest rate in 33-years. This is probably the only obvious knock against this months NFP release. On the surface, it’s not a very healthy way to achieve a jobless rate decline and it will be used as fodder for the pro-stimulus members at the Fed.

The +51k busting print for February from the Canadians is very much a showstopper. However, it’s worth noting that their job survey is usually very volatile because of the much smaller sample. The fulltime print of +33k new jobs has the loonie ‘strutting’ on the crosses with very little been given up.

CAD is dominant in EUR/CAD, CAD/JPY and against its commodity cousin the AUD. Along with the stateside job numbers, the release provides a good bullish argument to want to own the loonie now that the rate dealers have priced out any chance of a Central Bank rate cut this year after the BoC meet in mid-week. Now we have to wait and see if momentum is carried over into next week.

• Loonie Rallies As Employment Numbers Beat Street
• All except 1 Bank Passed Fed’s Stress Test
• US Trade Deficit Rebounds in January due to Oil Imports
• Obamacare Is Costing Jobs and Sales Says Beige Book
• USD/CAD Moves to 1.0320 Central Bank Says Rate Appropriate
• US Orders for Goods Fall 2 percent in January
• US Treasury’s Fall: Equity Gains Dampen Insurance Demand
• U.S. Dollar Remains Lower Versus Majors Before Beige Book
• Talks Continue on U.S. Spending Cuts
• Dollar Index Trades Near 6-Month High
• ‘Avoid Currency Intervention’ U.S. Tells G–7
• Managed Exchange Rates Create Tension Says US Treasury Official
• US and China Strike Tentative Deal on North Korea Sanctions
• US 10′s Under Pressure on Speculation Services Expanded
• WTI Crude Rebounds From 10-Week Low
• Obama Offers Medicare and Social Security in Latest “Grand Bargain”
• No Progress on Sequestration Talks

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