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Brent Crude – Oil recovers as markets price in more rate cuts

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  • Better economic prospects buoy oil
  • Downside risks remain as central bankers push back
  • Brent testing key resistance

Oil prices are recovering a little but remain broadly under pressure after falling 20% over two months from the middle of October.

There’s still a lot of uncertainty and debate around the demand outlook for next year and it would appear the prospect of many rate cuts has boosted the odds of a softer landing which could support demand and may have done the same to the price in recent days.

But there are clearly risks to that, not least that markets may have become overly optimistic about cuts next year. Then there’s also the risk that past cuts could have an even more dampening impact on the global economy or that OPEC+ compliance is as weak as the deal indicated it could be.

There are of course upside risks too, that demand and the economy outperform as they have this year which much lower interest rates could support.

Brent recedes from Fib zone

Brent rallied earlier in the session but has since pulled off its highs which fell between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels.

Brent Daily

Source – OANDA

This also falls around an important area of support and resistance over the last six months or so, further reinforcing it as an important zone now.

While the first attempt has failed, there doesn’t appear to be a shortage of momentum at this point so it will be interesting to see whether there’s another run at it.

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Former Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary.

His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News.

Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
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