Market Insights Podcast – Impact of a hung French parliament, US and China inflation data looms ahead

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data and events. Firstly, we kickstarted with a discussion on the recent two key developed nations’ political events; the UK snap general election and second round of the France legislation elections.

The past week of “horse trading” between French President Macron’s centrist alliance and the far-left coalition New Popular Front has prevented the initial leading far-right National Rally party from obtaining an absolute majority, and shockingly it dropped to a third spot behind the far-left that managed to came in first followed by Macron’s centrist alliance that grabbed the second spot. Overall, a hung French parliament as all three factions do not obtain a majority share of shares that in turn will likely to hamper economic growth in France as fiscal policies implementations are likely to face grid locks.

In contrast, the newly formed Labour UK government has promoted pro-growth policies without straining the budget deficit (away from its traditional far-left approach) has led to an outperformance of the GBP over the EUR where the EUR/GBP may revisit its 22-month low in the near-term.

Next up, the key economic data and events to focus this week will be Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to US Congress. US CPI, China PPI & CPI, and the unofficial start of the Q2 US earnings reporting session where three major US banks; JP Morgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will report their respective earnings this Friday, 12 July.

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