AUD/USD – Trying to Recover to 0.75

AUD/USD – Friday 10 July 2015

The Australian dollar has fallen sharply over the last few weeks which has culminated in a new six year low below 0.74 earlier this week.  The AUD/USD is presently trading just above 0.7450 and spending some time consolidating and catching its breath a little.  A few times last week the AUD/USD tested the key support level at 0.76 and enjoyed some solid support before it failed. Throughout last week the Australia dollar was starting to feel some selling pressure from the 0.77 level and it had its eyes firmly focused on the long term support level at 0.76. A couple of weeks ago the AUD/USD fell sharply lower below 0.77 however it found solid support from the long term support level at 0.76. This level has provided solid support throughout most of this year so it is quite significant that it has now been strongly broken.

A few weeks ago it surged higher from below 0.77 up to a three week high, however it ran straight into resistance at the key 0.7850 level, which has performed this role several times this year. Throughout this time it also spent most of its time trading quite steady around the 0.7750 level whilst receiving solid support from 0.77. Over the last month the resistance level at 0.7850 has played a major role and continues to place selling pressure down on the AUD/USD. Throughout this same period it has been enjoying rock solid support from the long term support level at 0.76 which has allowed it to rebound strongly back up to above 0.78 on more than one occasion.

Throughout the second half of May the Australian dollar fall sharply from a four month high above 0.8150 down to the key support level at 0.76. This level has been a significant level for a couple of months and has propped the Australian dollar up on multiple occasions. This recent price action has been a significant reversal as it wasn’t so long ago, the AUD/USD was in a solid medium term up trend having broken through the key 0.7850 level and achieved the four month high above 0.8150. For most of this year the Australian dollar has traded within a wide trading range between the support at 0.76 and resistance around 0.7850. Earlier this year in February that range was tighter with the support level higher at 0.77. Throughout this period it experienced reasonable swings back and forth between the two key levels with very few excursions beyond the levels.

(Daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)

AUD/USD July 9 at 23:45 GMT   0.7456   H: 0.7491   L: 0.7392

AUD/USD Technical

During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Friday, the Australian dollar is rallying higher back up above 0.7450 after recently falling sharply to a six year low below 0.74. Current range: trading right around 0.7450.

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 0.7400.

• Above: 0.7850 and 0.8150.

OANDA’s Open Position Ratios

(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)

The long position ratio for AUD/USD has moved back up to 60% as the AUD/USD has settled and recovered a little back towards 0.75.  The trader sentiment is in favour of long positions.

Economic Releases

• 01:30 AU Housing & Lending Finance (May)
• 05:00 JP Consumer Confidence (Jun)
• 08:30 UK Construction Output (sa) (May)
• 08:30 UK Trade Balance (Non-EU) (May)
• 08:30 UK Visible Trade Balance (World) (May)
• 12:30 CA Unemployment (Jun)
• 14:00 US Wholesale Inventories (May)

* All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.