Week Ahead – The calm before the storm

US

After a hotter-than-expected NFP report, investors will fixate on producer prices, inflation expectations, and retail earnings. It will be a busy week filled with a wide range of economic releases, but the big ones, PPI and University of Michigan sentiment are released at the end of the week.  Producer prices are expected to cool again, while the consumers’ current conditions and expectations should soften.    

Wall Street is looking for clearer signals that the labor market is softening and that could mean corporate America will have more layoff announcements. The countdown to the FOMC policy decision begins and so does the blackout period for Fed speeches.  

The Georgia Senate runoff race will also determine if Democrats can increase their hold on the Senate.  Democrats currently have 50 seats and Republicans have 49.  If Republican Walker wins, the chamber would remain split and VP Harris would have the tie-breaking vote.

EU

There are a number of economic releases on the calendar next week but it’s almost entirely made up of tier two and three data. That includes final PMIs, revised GDP and retail sales. 

The most notable events for the EU over the next week are speeches by ECB policymakers ahead of the last meeting of the year a week later – including President Lagarde on Monday and Thursday – and the final negotiations on the Russian oil price cap as part of a package of sanctions due to come into force on Monday.

UK 

Compared with the soap opera of the last few months, next week is looking pretty bland from a UK perspective. A couple of tier two and three releases are notable including the final services PMI, BRC retail sales monitor and consumer inflation expectations. I’m not convinced any will be particularly impactful, barring a truly shocking number.

Russia

The most notable economic release next week is the CPI on Friday which is seen moderating further to 12% from 12.6% in October, potentially allowing for further easing from the CBR a week later.

South Africa

Politics appears to be dominating the South African markets at the moment as efforts to impeach President Cyril Ramaphosa go into the weekend. The rand has seemingly been very sensitive to developments this week, with the prospect of a resignation appearing to trigger sharp sell-off’s in the currency and the country’s bonds. Under the circumstances, that could bring weekend risk for South African assets depending on how events progress over the coming days. 

On the data front, next week brings GDP on Tuesday and manufacturing production on Thursday. 

Turkey

Ordinarily, especially these days, inflation releases are widely followed but that is less the case for a country and central bank that has such little interest in it. Official inflation is expected to ease slightly, but only to 84.65% from 85.51% in October, hardly something to celebrate. The central bank has indicated that its easing cycle will now pause at 9% so perhaps another reason to disregard the inflation data.

Switzerland

A quieter week after one of repeated disappointment on the economic data front. Whether that will be enough to push the SNB into a slower pace of tightening isn’t clear, although it has repeatedly stressed the threat of inflation and need to control it. The meeting on 15 December remains this months highlight while next week has only unemployment on Wednesday to offer.

China

The PBOC announced on 25 November its decision to cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks by 25 basis points, lowering the weighted average ratio for financial institutions to 7.8% and releasing about 500 billion yuan in long-term liquidity to prop up the faltering economy.  

In response to the various property crises that have emerged in the real estate sector over the past year or so, i.e. debt defaults by real estate companies, mortgage suspensions leading to unfinished buildings, and real estate-related non-performing loan crises, the Chinese government has issued a new 16-point plan.

Focus next week will be on the Caixin services PMI, trade data, CPI release and the protests. China’s strict zero-Covid measures are hammering growth and the public is clearly becoming increasingly frustrated. It will be a fine balance between managing protests and easing Covid-zero measures to support growth in a country not used to the former.

India

The RBI could potentially bring its tightening cycle to a close next Wednesday with a final 35 basis point hike, taking the repo rate to 6.25%. While the outlook remains cloudy given the global economic outlook, there is some reason to be optimistic. The tightening cycle may soon be at an end, the economy exited recession in the last quarter and Indian stock hit a record high this week, something of an outlier compared with its global peers.

Australia & New Zealand

Recent figures show that inflation (YoY) in Australia rose to 7.3% in the third quarter, compared to the target range of 2%-3%. The RBA began to weaken their hawkish stance in the past two months, raising rates by just 25 basis points each time to bring the official rate to 2.85%. The market is currently expecting a 25 basis point rate hike next week as well. Also worth noting is Australia’s third quarter GDP trade balance figures.

New Zealand inflation (YoY) surged 7.2% in the third quarter, compared to the RBNZ’s inflation target range of 1%-3%. Previously, the RBNZ had been raising rates by 50 basis points but that changed last month as they ramped it up with a 75 basis point hike. The current official rate is now 4.25%.

Japan

The Japan Tokyo CPI rose by 3.8% year-on-year in November, up from 3.5% in October and the 3.6% expected. Ex-fresh food and energy it increased by 2.5%, up from 2.2% and above the 2.3% expected. Japan’s manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 in November, the worst in two years, with both new export orders and overall new orders declining and falling below 50 for the fifth consecutive month, which alines with the unexpected 0.3% fall in Japanese GDP in the third quarter. Japan department store sales rose 11.4% year-on-year in October, down from 20.2% in September.   

The poor PMI and retail sales data may have reinforced the BOJ’s view that domestic demand is weak and CPI inflation is largely input and cost driven and, therefore, unsustainable. The central bank will likely continue to pursue an accommodative monetary policy, especially in light of the current poor global economic outlook.

Final GDP for the third quarter is in focus next week, with the quarterly figure expected to be negative meaning the economy may be in recession. Lots of other releases throughout the week but the majority, if not all, are tier two and three.

Singapore

Singapore’s CPI for October was 6.7% (YoY), below expectations of 7.1% and the 7.50% reading. GDP for the third quarter (YoY) was 4.1%, below expectations of 4.2% and 4.40% previously. On the quarter, it was 1.1% down from 1.50%. Next week the only release of note is retail sales on Monday.

Economic Calendar

Saturday, Dec. 3

Economic Events

ECB President Lagarde chairs a roundtable on “The Global Dimensions of Policy Normalization” at a Bank of Thailand conference

Sunday, Dec. 4

Economic Data/Events

Thailand consumer confidence

OPEC+ output virtual meeting

ECB’s Nagel and Villeroy appear on German television

Monday, Dec. 5

Economic Data/Events

US factory orders, durable goods orders, ISM services index

Eurozone Services PMI

Singapore Services PMI

Australia Services PMI, inflation gauge, job advertisements, inventories

China Caixin services PMI

India services PMI

Eurozone retail sales

Japan PMI

New Zealand commodity prices

Singapore retail sales

Taiwan foreign reserves

Turkey CPI

European Union sanctions on Russian oil are expected to begin

ECB President Lagarde gives a keynote speech on “Transition Towards a Greener Economy: Challenges and Solutions”

ECB’s Villeroy speaks at a conference of French banking and finance supervisor ACPR in Paris

ECB’s Makhlouf speaks in Dublin

EU finance ministers meet in Brussels

The US Business Roundtable publishes its CEO Economic Outlook survey

Tuesday, Dec. 6

Economic Data/Events

US Trade

Thailand CPI

RBA rate decision: Expected to raise Cash Rate Target by 25bps to 3.10%

Australia BoP, net exports of GDP

Germany factory orders, Services PMI

Japan household spending

Mexico international reserves

South Africa GDP

Georgia’s US Senate runoff

The first-ever EU-Western Balkans summit is held in Albania

Goldman Sachs Financial Services conference

Wednesday, Dec. 7

Economic Data/Events

US Trade MBA mortgage applications

China reserves, Trade

Australia GDP, reserves

Eurozone GDP

Canada central bank (BOC) rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 25bps to 4.00%

India central bank (RBI) rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 25bps to 6.15%

Poland central bank rate decision:  Expected to keep rates steady at 6.75%

Singapore reserves

Germany industrial production

Japan leading index

BOJ’s Toyoaki Nakamura speaks in Nagano

EIA crude oil inventory report

Foreign policy forum is held in Moscow with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov speaks at a foreign policy forum in Moscow.

Thursday, Dec. 8

Economic Data/Events

US initial jobless claims

Australia trade

Indonesia consumer confidence

Japan GDP, BoP

Mexico CPI

New Zealand heavy traffic index

South Africa current account, manufacturing production

ECB President Lagarde speaks at the European Systemic Risk Board’s sixth annual conference

SNB’s Maechler participates in a panel discussion

ECB’s Villeroy speaks at the Toulouse School of Economics

European Defence Agency holds its annual conference in Brussels

Friday, Dec. 9

Economic Data/Events

US PPI, wholesale inventories, University of Michigan consumer sentiment

China CPI

Russia CPI 

China PPI, aggregate financing, money supply, new yuan loans

Japan M2

New Zealand card spending, manufacturing activity

Spain industrial production

Thailand foreign reserves, forward contracts

Portuguese PM Costa, Spain PM Sanchez, and French President Macron attend a meeting in Spain

Sovereign Rating Updates

United Kingdom (Fitch)

EFSF (Moody’s)

ESM (Moody’s)

Netherlands (Moody’s)

Saudi Arabia (Moody’s)

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