Trade Wars 2.0 - news and analysis

The second presidency of Donald Trump initiated escalation of tariffs that triggered significant financial movements. These actions may to increased costs for businesses and consumers, disrupted supply chains, and created market uncertainty. Retaliatory tariffs from affected nations can further strain global trade, impacting economic growth and prompting concerns about long-term financial stability.

Chart alert: Risk off after Trump’s speech - intraday outlook on S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, AUD/USD, Gold (XAU/USD), and WTI crude oil

Global markets have shifted back into risk-off mode after Trump’s hawkish stance on Iran dampened de-escalation hopes. Equities and AUD/USD weakened as bearish momentum resumed, while the US dollar strengthened. WTI crude oil surged above $102.25, supported by supply concerns, but gold’s recent rally shows signs of exhaustion. Technical signals suggest further downside risks for risk assets unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.

02-04-2026 05:02 GMT by Kelvin Wong

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Chart alert: US stock indices rally smells like a dead cat bounce – outlook on S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones (DJIA)

US stock indices surged sharply, but the rally may be a dead cat bounce driven by short-covering and quarter-end positioning amid hopes of a US–Iran de-escalation. Technical signals remain bearish, with major indices still below key resistance levels and longer-term charts flashing reversal patterns. Weak market breadth suggests limited participation, keeping downside risks intact unless critical levels are reclaimed.

01-04-2026 10:38 GMT by Kelvin Wong