Gold – Gathering momentum?

Or a failed recovery?

Gold fell heavily between the middle of April and May but then started to recover as interest rate expectations were pared back. How sustainable is the recovery?

It ran into trouble quite quickly around $1,870, at which point it struggled to gather any upward momentum. But after falling back towards $1,830 today, that may have changed.

A rotation off the 50% Fibonacci retracement level – mid-May lows to late-May highs – which coincides with the 200/233-day SMA band may signal a resumption of the recovery that sees it test last week’s highs.

If so, then perhaps gold could enjoy more of a recovery and a run at $1,900. But that may depend on how the broader markets behave and whether yields and the dollar avoid rising much further.

A failure at $1,850 or $1,870 could spell trouble for the yellow metal, especially if accompanied by higher interest rate expectations and a stronger dollar.

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