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Oil tumbles, gold’s safe-haven status

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Oil

Crude prices tumbled as recession worries dominated the headlines and as the oil market lost its tightness. ​ It seems to have happened quickly but the crude demand outlook is getting crushed as we are in a slowdown basically across all the major economies. ​ Supplies seem plentiful over the near-term and that has everyone hesitating on what was one of the easiest trades of the year. ​

Energy traders are not confidently buying dips, but they will if the current selloff sends prices close to the levels the Biden administration might refill the SPR, which is in the $70 region. ​

Gold

Gold prices are holding up despite a major risk-off mode on Wall Street. ​ Recession warnings are running wild and are driving a strong move back into safe-havens. ​ It is not often we see a stronger dollar, significant pressure on stocks as both gold and the dollar rally. ​ Treasury yields are going down as too many investors are now ready to start pricing in a US recession for next year. ​

Gold is still comfortably below the $1800 level and seems likely to consolidate closer to the $1760 region. ​

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Contributing Author at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya was a Senior Market Analyst with OANDA for the Americas from November 2018 to November 2023.

His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Prior to OANDA he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news.

Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business, cheddar news, and CoinDesk TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most respected global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Seeking Alpha, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal.

Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
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