NZ dollar slides below 62, retail sales next

The New Zealand dollar continues to show volatility this week. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6182, down 0.48%, erasing all of Tuesday’s gains.

New Zealand retail sales expected to rebound

Later today, New Zealand releases retail sales for the second quarter. The markets are expecting a strong rebound of 1.7%, after the Q1 reading of -0.5%. The release is expected to reflect pent-up consumer demand after Covid restrictions were lifted in April. A stronger-than-expected release could give the New Zealand dollar a lift.

The RBNZ will be carefully monitoring the retail sales release, as a strong reading would indicate that the economy remains strong and can continue to absorb higher interest rates. The RBNZ has been aggressive, raising rates by 50 basis points at four straight meetings. The central bank is expected to add another 50bp hike at the October meeting, which would bring the cash rate to 3.50%. Inflation has hit 7.3%, but the RBNZ is confident that it will peak soon and expects inflation to fall to 3.8% by the end of 2023. The central bank is cautiously positive about the economic outlook, predicting that the economic slowdown will not turn into a full-blown recession.

Over in the US, durable goods orders for July were a mix. The headlines reading slipped to 0.0%, down sharply from 2.2% in June and missing the estimate of 0.6%. Core durable goods was unchanged at 0.3%. The weak data did not weigh on the US dollar, unlike the case after a weak US New Home Sales release on Tuesday, which sent the US dollar broadly lower.

Investors are now shifting attention to Thursday’s US Preliminary GDP for Q2. In July, the initial GDP estimate came in at -0.9%, settting off a storm of debate as to whether the US economy was in a recession after back-to-back quarters of negative growth. The debate had political overtones as well, with the White House, trying to avoid being tainted with the “R” word, went to great pains to point out that there are other definitions of a recession. The second GDP estimate is likely to come in at -0.8% or -0.9%; any other number would be a surprise and would likely result in some volatility for the US dollar.

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NZD/USD Technical

• NZD/USD faces resistance at 0.6227 and 0.6366
• There is support at 0.6126 and 0.6075

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