Commodities: All News & Analysis

Explore our extensive commodities news, which unveils critical insights into price movements, trends, and expert forecasts in the raw materials market. By examining price actions and understanding the factors influencing commodity values, understand current market dynamics. This page is designed to boost your research on historical trends, identify seasonal patterns, and sharpen your trading strategies across sectors such as energy, metals, and agriculture. Equip yourself with the knowledge necessary to enhance your understanding of the commodities landscape and elevate your trading decisions.

USD/JPY: Safe-haven flows are the dominant trade on fear of war's spread

WSJ reports Iran helped plot attack over several weeks Safe-haven flows didn't come to Treasuries as US bond markets were closed for Columbus Day Risk aversion across the board; S&P 500 -0.5%, Gold +1.1%, WTI crude +4.3%, and USD/JPY -0.5% US stocks dropped in the wake of the Hamas attack on Israel but have pared losses after Fed's Logan downplayed the need for more rate hikes. It was supposed to be a quiet Monday morning given the Columbus day holiday, which includes the closure of the US bon

Oct 9, 2023 by Edward Moya

XAU/USD - Safe haven flows boost gold after a rough few weeks

Geopolitical uncertainty boosts gold Driven lower recently by rising yields Fib levels may offer biggest test of resistance Gold is higher at the start of the week, buoyed perhaps by some safe-haven flows against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty. The dollar is also stronger which is typically a headwind for gold but it's not proving particularly problematic this morning. The yellow metal has been under immense pressure in recent weeks as investors became increasingly unsure about the in

Oct 9, 2023 by Craig Erlam

Geopolitical risk premium on the rise may trigger another round of risk-off movement in equities

In the recent past three months, the 40% rally seen in the WTI crude oil has a significant direct correlation with the US 10-year US Treasury yield. A higher US 10-year US Treasury yield has trigged a short-term downtrend in global equities since late July 2023. WTI crude oil futures gapped up by +5% in today’s Asia opening session due to the ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hamas, the Palestinian militant group. A further up move above a key short-term resistance of US$89.70/barrel on WTI

Oct 9, 2023 by Kelvin Wong

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Podcast - US jobs report sends financial markets on a rollercoaster ride

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart and Trader Nick. Today they discuss Wall Street's reaction to a surprisingly robust US jobs report and why the dollar and stocks reversed course. They also review Canada's impressive jobs report and discuss crude's bad week despite the significant tightness in the oil market.

Oct 6, 2023 by Edward Moya

USD/CAD unchanged as Canada, US post strong job numbers

Canada records 63,800 jobs in September US nonfarm payrolls posts a massive gain of 336,000 Fed rate odds of a November hike rise sharply The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Friday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3705, almost unchanged.

Oct 6, 2023 by Kenneth Fisher

Gold Technical: A consolidation in the US 10-year Treasury yield may offer a relief bounce

Spot Gold (XAU/USD) has a significant indirect correlation with the 10-year US Treasury yield since May 2023. A potential short-term pull-back in US 10-year Treasury yield below a 4.90% key medium-term resistance may offer a “relief mean reversion rebound” on spot Gold. Watch the key support of US$1,810 on spot Gold. In the past two weeks, the price of spot Gold (XAU/USD) has tumbled swiftly by -6.90% from its 21 September 2023 high of US$1,947 to a seven-month low of US$1,813 printed on Thursd

Oct 6, 2023 by Kelvin Wong

NZD/USD: Bounce limited as RBNZ rate hike odds for November underwhelm

Fed's Daly (non-voter) noted that recent bond market tightening equals about 1 rate hike; if labor market cools, we can hold rates steady RBNZ rate hike expectations are between a hold or one more rate hike China's improving outlook could boost commodities The New Zealand central bank is keeping all their options open after keeping rates on hold this week, refraining to signaling that inflation outlook could warrant further tightening.

Oct 5, 2023 by Edward Moya

Podcast - Suspected yen intervention, mixed US data, OPEC+ meet

OANDA Senior Market Analyst joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the potential Japanese yen intervention, US economic data and the OPEC+ meeting.

Oct 4, 2023 by Craig Erlam

Brent Crude - Oil slips as OPEC+ looks to maintain cuts for now

OPEC+ expected to leave output unchanged until the end of the year Saudi Arabia and Russia are also expected to leave restrictions unchanged Brent falls more than 5% Oil prices have fallen more than 3% today as OPEC+ looks set to leave their output targets unchanged, while Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirmed their commitment to additional cuts until the end of the year. That may not sound particularly bearish for oil but in doing nothing, the group is leaving the door open to output increases f

Oct 4, 2023 by Craig Erlam

USD/CAD: Loonie weakness extends as oil prices drop

USD/CAD has been hit with heightened volatility given bond market chaos and the big moves in the oil market. The dollar rally has paused against euro and yen, but it continues against commodity currencies. Demand for all commodities are taking a hit here as surging Treasury yields are driving global growth concerns. Price action on the USD/CAD daily chart is showing the recent bullish rally is tentatively breaking above key trendline resistance that has been in place since the start of the pan

Oct 4, 2023 by Edward Moya

USD/JPY: JOLTS dollar pop likely triggered Japanese intervention

USD/JPY fell 275 pips immediately after the JOLTS report sent price action above the 150 level Japan MOF Official: No comment on in Japan intervened with the yen JOLTS: August job openings rose from an upwardly revised 8.920 million to 9.610 million

Oct 3, 2023 by Edward Moya

Gold - Continues to struggle amid hawkish central bank warnings

Gold eyeing a seventh consecutive decline? JOLTS job openings reinforce the view of a strong labor market Major technical support below if sell-off continues Gold is on course to extend its losing run to seven sessions, with the yellow metal down around half a percent following the US JOLTS report. Rising bond yields have hammered gold prices recently which have fallen from $1,900 to near $1,800 remarkably fast.

Oct 3, 2023 by Craig Erlam

Brent Crude - Volatile start for oil ahead of OPEC+ meeting

PMIs continue to point to a weakness in demand OPEC+ holds the key to crude oil prices Lost momentum ahead of recent decline It's been a volatile start to the week for oil, with prices initially rising before falling negative to trade almost 2% lower on the day. We've had a vast selection of PMIs to bear in mind today, as well as speculation around the OPEC+ decision on Wednesday and, of course, the US averted a government shutdown.

Oct 2, 2023 by Craig Erlam

USD/CAD: Loonie weakens after GDP miss and on oil profit-taking

Canadian economy struggles to find growth Oil price rally exhausted as $100 price remains elusive GDP sends BOC rate hike odds down; October 25th meeting at 30.4% vs yesterday's 42.2% USD/CAD rises to a two-week high after loonie bulls disappeared after a disappointing July GDP report. It looks like Wall Street was a bit too optimistic on the Canadian economy and expectations for August is for a similar reading. The Canadian economic outlook is struggling as the impact from Bank of Canada's ag

Sep 29, 2023 by Edward Moya

Podcast - The end of a volatile week, month, and quarter; Inflation and spending are cooling

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart and Trader Nick. They discuss Wall Street's reaction to the release of the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, a looming government shutdown, the expanding autoworkers strike, and oil prices.

Sep 29, 2023 by Edward Moya

Brent Crude - Is the oil rally running on fumes as Brent nears $100?

Oil rally is not a repeat of last year $100 a major psychological level Divergences appearing Oil prices are increasingly hitting the headlines, with Brent crude coming within five dollars of triple figures which will naturally bring back bad memories of last year's price surge. It is worth noting that, while oil could top $100, this is very different from 2022 and is largely being driven by OPEC+ tipping the market into deficit which is unlikely to be the long-term plan.

Sep 28, 2023 by Craig Erlam

XAU/USD - Hawkish Fed commentary pushes gold back below $1,900

Hawkish Fed speak continues to pressure gold Two key technical support levels broken today Gold trading at a six month low Gold continues to drift lower after breaking below $1,900, a key area of support in recent weeks. The yellow metal had been range-bound between $1,900 and $1,950 around the major central bank meetings this month and it would appear a hawkish Fed when others have adopted a more neutral tone has pushed it over the edge. The dollar has been charging higher over the last week

Sep 27, 2023 by Craig Erlam

Brent Crude - Oil on the rise again after taking a small breather

Price breaks higher after brief consolidation Oil market remains tight, supporting prices Momentum indicators may be key near $100 After a week of consolidation, oil prices are on the rise again on Wednesday ahead of the release of inventory data from EIA. The API release yesterday may have surprised some, recording an increase of 1.586 million barrels, a lot more than the 0.7 million decline that's expected today. But it won't alter the view that the market is extremely tight following a numb

Sep 27, 2023 by Craig Erlam

WTI Oil Technical: Continuation of potential impulsive up move within a major uptrend

The recent minor corrective pull-back of -4.7% from its 19 September 2023 high of US$93.05 is likely to have ended. Bullish reversal candlestick, a daily “Hammer” sighted after a retest on its upward-sloping 20-day moving average. Key short-term support to watch will be at US$90.30, the pull-back of the former minor “pennant” range resistance. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “WTI Oil Technical: Bullish exhaustion sighted below US$93.80 per barrel key resistance” published on 2

Sep 27, 2023 by Kelvin Wong

Brent Crude - Oil pares gains in risk-averse trade

Potential profit-taking after immense rally Economic pessimism may weigh in the future Bullish flag formation may suggest there's more to come Risk aversion in markets may be weighing on oil prices a little, especially if economic fears are fueling that sentiment. Oil prices have rallied strongly on the back of supply restrictions and the economy failing to live up to expectations was always going to be one of the primary counter-risks for the price.

Sep 26, 2023 by Craig Erlam

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