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Commodities: All News & Analysis

Explore our extensive commodities news, which unveils critical insights into price movements, trends, and expert forecasts in the raw materials market. By examining price actions and understanding the factors influencing commodity values, understand current market dynamics. This page is designed to boost your research on historical trends, identify seasonal patterns, and sharpen your trading strategies across sectors such as energy, metals, and agriculture. Equip yourself with the knowledge necessary to enhance your understanding of the commodities landscape and elevate your trading decisions.

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Market Insights Podcast - Higher for longer interest rates back in vogue, US CPI, ECB and Q1 US banks earnings on the radar
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week's key economic data and events. Firstly, a quick recap on what happened last week week where the initial Fed dovish pivot narrative has been watered down due to a hawkish Fed Speak from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari that suggested interest rate cuts may not be needed in 2024 coupled with a red-hot US non-farm payroll jobs data for March.
Apr 08, 2024 by Kelvin Wong
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SPX 500: Fed dovish pivot narrative is at risk
Higher oil prices have led to higher inflationary expectations in the US via the breakeven rates. Recent rise in inflationary expectations coupled with recent “less dovish” Fed Speak from Fed officials Kashkari, and Bostic has revived the “higher for longer” interest rates environment. Higher commodities prices led by oil may see an uptick in US CPI data.
Apr 08, 2024 by Kelvin Wong
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Gold Technical: A potential minor corrective pull-back in play as FOMC looms
Gold (XAU/USD) has traded in a tight range of 2% in the past two weeks after it printed a fresh all-time high of US$2,195 on 8 March. The biggest risk event for today will be the latest Fed FOMC’s dot plot projection on the trajectory of its Fed funds rate; a reduction to two cuts from three cuts for 2024 cannot be ruled out. Technical analysis suggests potential short-term weakness in Gold (XAU/USD). Watch the key short-term resistance at US$2,180 on Gold (XAU/USD).
Mar 20, 2024 by Kelvin Wong
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Gold Technical: On the cusp of a potential major bullish breakout
Gold Technical: On the cusp of a potential major bullish breakout Gold (XAU/USD) recorded its highest weekly gain of 2.33% year-to-date on 1 March 2024, and its best weekly return seen in the past three months. Positive technical elements and a softer real US 10-year Treasury yield below 2.15% support a potential major bullish breakout scenario for Gold (XAU/USD). Gold (XAU/USD) potential bullish breakout trigger level stands at US$2,090.
Mar 04, 2024 by Kelvin Wong
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Brent Crude - Oil gives back gains after inventory data
EIA reported inventories rose by 12 million barrels last week Volatility remains amid uncertainty Inverse head and shoulders forms Oil prices remain very volatile and last week's unexpected and substantial inventory build, reported by EIA, further added to that. The price fell sharply after the data and continued earlier today before recouping those losses to trade flat on the session.
Feb 15, 2024 by Craig Erlam
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US stock market bulls are facing a reality check (3 ominous signs to watch)
Goods-based inflationary pressures in the US may resurface in H2 2024 due to leading bullish momentum built-up in commodities. Persistent low correlation readings among S&P 500 constituents may trigger a spike in the VIX. The leading Nasdaq 100 has displayed bearish reversal elements. The US stock market continued to hit another milestone last week when the benchmark S&P 500 recorded 14 weekly gains in the past 15 weeks as of 9 February 2024, its longest winning streak since 1972. Overall, am
Feb 14, 2024 by Kelvin Wong
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Gold - Falls below $2,000 after resilient display this year
US inflation report hits gold Fewer Fed rate cuts priced into markets A loss of major technical support US inflation data finally took its toll on gold which, after holding strong above $2,000 this year, finally crumbled under the pressure of higher rates. How much worse it gets for the yellow metal will ultimately depend on how bad the data gets but, under the circumstances, we're certainly back in a "good news is bad news" scenario ahead of the retail sales data.
Feb 13, 2024 by Craig Erlam
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A modest silver lining for China and Hong Kong stock markets
China's CPI continued to deflate in January to -0.8% y/y from -0.3% y/y in December 2023 while the pace of contraction has slowed slightly in PPI (factory gate prices) to -2.5% y/y from -2.7% y/y in December. The spread of PPI over CPI has widened which in turn may see a turnaround in the current negative profitability growth rate of China’s industrial enterprises. Technical analysis suggests the minor countertrend rally in the Hang Seng Index may extend.
Feb 08, 2024 by Kelvin Wong
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Gold - Will the Fed hint at a March cut or just leave the door slightly ajar?
Fed statement and press conference key Will they hint at a rate cut in March? Gold hovering between $2,000 and $2,500 It's been a relatively slow start to trading on Wednesday which isn't surprising considering what's to come later in the day. On another day, earnings from Alphabet and Microsoft may have dictated sentiment in the broader markets but as it is, investors are more focused on events in Washington, so tech aside markets are relatively flat.
Jan 31, 2024 by Craig Erlam
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Market Insights Podcast - FOMC, BOE, and US NFP to stand out in this busy week
OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this pivotal week's key economic data and events which may trigger higher volatile movements in the global markets due to the anticipation of market participants' dovish expectations on the forward guidance from the Fed and Bank of England due on Wednesday (31 January), and Thursday (1 February). Also, keep a lookout for the potential negative ramifications of China Evergrande Group's liquidation order by a Hong Kong court, a ma
Jan 29, 2024 by Kelvin Wong
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Gold: Pivotal week after being sandwiched by opposing factors
Higher US 10-year Treasury real yield and rising geopolitical risk premium have created a floor and cap for Gold (XAU/USD) at US$2,000 and US$2,040 respectively. Historical volatility of Gold (XAU/USD) has slipped to a 4-month low, increasing the odds of an impending volatility breakout scenario. The direction of the volatility breakout is likely to be reinforced by this Wednesday’s FOMC monetary policy guidance. Positive momentum has started to emerge ahead of FOMC.
Jan 29, 2024 by Kelvin Wong
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WTI Oil Technical: Approaching a key medium-term resistance, at risk of a mean reversion decline
WTI crude oil has started to evolve into a short-term uptrend phase reinforced by the recent liquidity infusion by China's central bank, PBoC upcoming 50 bps cut on the RRR. The current 5-day rally of WTI crude oil has reached a key medium-term resistance zone of US$79.00/79.40 with a short-term overbought condition. At the risk of a minor mean reversion decline with intermediate supports at US$75.30 and US$74.80. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “WTI Oil Technical: Sideways wi
Jan 26, 2024 by Kelvin Wong
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Gold - Struggling near previous record highs and showing signs of weakness
Bearish correction underway? A lot of rate cuts are now priced in Fib bounce may be a bearish signal Gold is trading a little lower on Tuesday after bouncing higher once again in recent sessions. The yellow metal remains buoyed by very aggressive rate-cutting expectations, particularly in the US, but at the same time, it is struggling to generate fresh momentum around the prior record highs, near $2,070.
Jan 16, 2024 by Craig Erlam
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WTI Oil Technical: Sideways within a potential minor bottoming configuration
Ongoing hostilities in the Middle East region and the Red Sea shipping route have put a potential “floor” in oil prices due to the increasing risk of supply disruptions. The demand side has remained weak as China’s top policymakers have signalled a less forceful approach in enacting stimulus measures after PBoC left its 1-year MLF rate unchanged at 2.50%. Sideways for now between US$76.05/78.40 and US$69.20 for WTI crude oil. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “WTI Oil Technical:
Jan 16, 2024 by Kelvin Wong
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Gold: Potential bullish breakout from 6-week range
Positive price actions in Gold (XAU/USD) as it reintegrated back above its 20-day moving average. A continuation of the medium-term bearish trend on the US 10-year Treasury real yield below 1.82% key resistance may add further bullish impetus for Gold. A rise in geopolitical risk premium may also support a firmer Gold. Watch the US$2,015 key short-term support on Gold (XAU/USD).
Jan 14, 2024 by Kelvin Wong
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