Stocks: All News & Analysis

Hawkish Fed speak boosts dollar across all the board

Fed's Bowman reiterates that more hikes might be need to bring down inflation German Industrial Production fell to a 6-month low US inflation data expected to support a September pause, but possible coin flip for the November meeting The US dollar is stronger across the board as the bond market selloff returns, sending the 10-year Treasury yield 6.9 basis points higher to 4.103%. After a mixed jobs report (slower job growth pace but higher wages) this week is all about an inflation report that

07-08-2023 09:10 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - Will US core CPI stay at the lowest levels since 2021?

Everyone will be watching the US inflation report as a cool report could help support soft landing hopes and seal the deal for some that the Fed is done raising rates. Expectations for the July inflation report is for headline inflation to rise towards the mid-3% range, while core inflation remains steady and holding onto the lowest levels since 2021 on both a monthly basis at 0.2% and at 4.8% from a year ago.

04-08-2023 13:24 GMT by Edward Moya

Dollar dips as labor market slowdown bolsters case that the Fed is done raising rates

USD/JPY declines on expectations BOJ will let rates rise quickly Fed rate cut bets fully priced in by March meeting; implied rate stands at 5.123% Fed’s Bostic noted US employment gains are slowing in an orderly manner, no need for tightening NFP Day The US economy should continue to gradually weaken as the labor market softens. This labor market report showed 187,000 jobs were added to the economy, while wage pressures heated up, and as the unemployment rate dipped to 3.5%. This NFP report

04-08-2023 10:36 GMT by Edward Moya

Global Bond Market Selloff Extends after BOE signals more tightening ahead

BOE rate hike odds for the September 21st meeting stand at 87.3% The VIX index trades above 16, to the highest levels in two months FX Volatility starts to pick, Canadian dollar index rises to nine-month high Wall Street is watching a global bond market selloff get uglier as US stocks waver ahead of massive earnings from Apple and Amazon. A lot of economic data confirmed how resilient the US economy remains.

03-08-2023 15:22 GMT by Edward Moya

Dollar gains as risk aversion returns on Fitch's US downgrade and surging Treasury issuance

Dollar rises as Treasury yields hit 2023 highs on ADP report and rising debt issuance US firms add 324,000 in July, exceeding all estimates (140K to 280K) Fitch downgrades US on fiscal deterioration over next 3 years and surging debt burden US stocks are getting hit with a one-two punch as Fitch’s US sovereign downgrade overnight and on expectations the US Treasury will continue to boost the size of their debt sales. Earnings have been still coming mostly better than expected but the major ind

02-08-2023 13:13 GMT by Edward Moya

Podcast - Dollar rises on US credit rating downgraded, Treasury issuance, and ADP jobs boost

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Jonny Hart to discuss the Fitch's US Sovereign rating downgrade, a hot ADP private payrolls report, and the EIA's record inventory draw.

02-08-2023 12:52 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - BoE to keep hiking, US jobs and eurozone inflation eyed

With inflation steadily cooling, the Fed’s historic tightening campaign appears to be ending. The focus on Wall Street won’t just be inflation but now also economic activity. The upcoming week will be filled with several economic readings. On Monday, we will see two Fed regional surveys. The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to slightly improve while the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity report remains deeply in negative territory.

28-07-2023 15:17 GMT by Craig Erlam

Podcast - Fed tries to keep door open for more rate hikes

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to discuss the FOMC decision, preview the ECB, and recap mega-cap tech earnings.

26-07-2023 17:14 GMT by Edward Moya

Dollar slips as the Fed is most likely done

Fed swaps show only an 18% chance of a hike in September (under 50% for November) FOMC to take data-dependent approach on future hikes Fed no longer forecasting a recession The dollar declined as US stocks embraced a patient Fed Chair Powell that will remain dependent with the next two inflation reports before committing to what they will do in September. The Fed is probably done raising rates and that is keeping soft landing hopes alive. Fed Decision The Fed raised rates by a quarter-percent

26-07-2023 15:17 GMT by Edward Moya

FTSE - China Stimulus Promise, Unilever Rallies After Results, Fed and ECB eyed

Chinese stimulus hopes fails to lift the FTSE Unilever among best performers in the index after reporting earnings UK100 not far from all-time highs It's been another relatively flat session for equity markets, with investors seemingly having one eye on the Fed and ECB later in the week despite a strong showing in Chinese stocks earlier in the day. They were lifted by the promise of Chinese stimulus following the Politburo meeting this week and some potential relief for property market.

25-07-2023 12:46 GMT by Craig Erlam

Nasdaq 100 Technical: Bullish exhaustion sighted

Last week, Nasdaq 100 underperformed against the other major US stock indices. Nasdaq 100 failed to have a weekly close above 15,690 key medium-term resistance and ended with a weekly bearish “Shooting Star” candlestick pattern. Key near-term support will be at 15,270 (20-day moving average). Last week, the year-to-date highly flying technology-concentrated Nasdaq 100 underperformed with a weekly loss of -0.90% versus weekly gains seen in other major US stock indices; S&P 500 (+0.69%), Dow Jone

24-07-2023 07:20 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Week Ahead - Bracing for next week's earnings, rate decisions, and major economic data

US The Fed is expected to resume raising rates at the July 26th FOMC meeting. Fed funds futures see a 96% chance that the central bank will deliver a quarter-point rate rise, bringing the target range to between 5.25% and 5.50%, almost a 22-year high. The Fed delivered 10 straight rate increases and then paused at the June FOMC meeting. The Fed is going to raise rates on Wednesday and seems poised to be noncommittal with what they will do in September. The economic data has been mixed (str

21-07-2023 14:00 GMT by Edward Moya

Morning Movers: Yen tumbles as BOJ expected to keep YCC intact, Nasdaq's rebalancing

USD/JPY Yen dives on reports BOJ sees little need to adjust YCC Central bank-a-palooza was supposed to start next week, but traders got a head start after reports surfaced that the BOJ saw little urgency to adjust their yield curve control program (YCC). It looks like FX traders are expecting the BOJ to maintain their ultra-loose monetary policy and for the Fed to deliver a quarter-point rate rise and to have a wait-and-see approach about the September meeting. The Japanese yen is the we

21-07-2023 10:15 GMT by Edward Moya

Nasdaq - Tesla and Netflix tumble after reporting Q2 earnings

Tesla beats on earnings and revenues but warns margins may be cut further Netflix massively outpaces subscriber growth forecasts but share price tumbles Nasdaq slips again but record highs not too far away Stock markets are treading water on Thursday, with earnings from the US failing to stimulate further gains in early trade. Equities have performed extremely well recently as economic data has been more promising and the banks kicked off earnings season positively.

20-07-2023 10:59 GMT by Craig Erlam

Stocks gain ahead of big bank and tech earnings

Dollar wavers post Chinese data 10-year Treasury yield down 2.3 points to 3.809% JPMorgan extends gains post Friday's earnings US stocks are slightly higher after some disappointing Chinese GDP data raised concerns about the global economy but supported the argument that disinflation pressures are firmly in place. The disinflation story won’t be going away after Ford announced some big cuts with their electric F-150 truck prices. The disinflation process should remain intact and that should s

17-07-2023 12:52 GMT by Edward Moya

Stocks gain ahead of June CPI report

US June CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.1%e v 4.0% prior; Core CPI (ex food and energy)M/M: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 5.0%e v 5.3% prior Microsoft gets go-ahead to buy Activision; prompts excitement for further deal making. Impressive demand for 3-year note auction US stocks rose as bond yields remained capped as Wall Street looks like it is ready to move beyond a pivotal inflation report that should suggest interest rates will stay higher for longer. Headline CPI might fall to 2.9% and co

11-07-2023 16:10 GMT by Edward Moya

Wall Street awaits Wednesday's CPI data and the start of earnings season

Wednesday's inflation report expected to show CPI m/m: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior; y/y: 3.1%e v 4.0% prior; Core CPI m/m: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior; Core CPI y/y: :5.0%e v 5.3% prior Fed's Barr on banks: These changes would increase capital requirements overall Fed Mester noted that the funds rate will need to move up somewhat further from its current level and then hold there for a while US stocks are wavering ahead of both a key inflation report that should core CPI remain sticky and what should be a rough

10-07-2023 11:07 GMT by Edward Moya

MPCE-0063-Podcast-Thumbnail-Orange–1280x720.png

Podcast - NFP relief, US inflation, Zuckerberg takes on Musk

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart and Trader Nick to go over the US jobs report, inflation data next week and the launch of Threads, Meta's alternative to Twitter.

07-07-2023 11:22 GMT by Craig Erlam

Fed hawks in control after a hot ADP report and impressive ISM services reading

ADP shows 497,000 jobs created in June, biggest gains in over a year ISM Services Index makes 4-month high ISM Prices paid declined from 56.2 to 54.1, lowest since March 2020 US stocks extend losses after a hot ADP report and impressive ISM services report raised the odds the Fed might have to do deliver more rate hikes beyond the July FOMC meeting. The dollar pared losses as Fed rate hike odds rose on expectations the NFP report will deliver its 15th straight beat.

06-07-2023 10:16 GMT by Edward Moya

RBA delivers a hawkish pause, Zuckerberg takes on Musk

It's been a relatively quiet session with the US bank holiday naturally weighing on activity and those remaining having an eye on Friday's jobs report but the day hasn't been without interest as the RBA opted against hiking interest rates again.

04-07-2023 10:48 GMT by Craig Erlam

Stocks: all news & analysis