The Australian dollar declined as much as 1% on Tuesday before recovering these losses. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6497, down 0.1% on the day. Earlier, the Aussie dropped to low of 0.6433, its lowest level since August.
Australian inflation expected to rise
Australia releases the inflation report early on Wednesday. The inflation rate is expected to rise in October to 2.3% y/y, after a 2.1% gain in September. Investors are keeping a close eye on the release, which could play a factor in the Reserve Bank of Australia next rate announcement on Dec. 10.
The RBA has held interest rates at a 12-year high of 4.35% for over a year. The central bank has become an outlier among other major banks, which are in an easing cycle in response to falling inflation. Australia’s inflation rate is moving in the right direction and dropped to 2.8% in October, within the central bank’s target of 2% to 3%.
The RBA has remained hawkish, saying that underlying inflation is too high. The central bank hasn’t ruled out a rate hike, stating at the meeting earlier this month that “it was not possible to rule anything in or out in relation to future changes in the cash rate target”. The RBA isn’t in any rush to lower rates, and can be expected to continue to hold rates until inflation falls further or the labor market weakens.
Still, a rate hike isn’t likely as it would be an extremely unpopular move. Australian home owners are chafing under high rates but aren’t likely to get any rate relief until next year.
AUD/USD Technical
- AUD/USD tested support at 0.6489 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6467
- 0.6530 and 0.6552 are the next resistance lines
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Kenny Fisher
Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental and macroeconomic analysis, Kenny Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in major online financial publications including Investing.com, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
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