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Week Ahead - A busy week ahead! FOMC minutes, US retail sales, UK Jobs/CPI, RBNZ Decides and Japan GDP/CPI
US With Wall Street very confident that the Fed won’t be raising rates in September, the focus shifts to how strong is the economy and whether it is too robust and if that could sparking fear that inflation might reaccelerate. The economic data starts on Tuesday with a July retail sales report that should show spending picked up from a month ago, which was boosted by Amazon’s Prime Day.  Also on Tuesday is the Empire manufacturing report which should show August activity remains weak and t
by Edward Moya
US stocks gyrate on hot PPI report and anchored inflation expectations; Oil rallies and gold softens
US stocks are mostly gyrating over economic data points and surveys that remind us that the disinflation process is going to struggle reaching the Fed’s 2% target. A slightly hotter-than-expected PPI report sent Treasury yields initially higher as Wall Street started to fret over a potential reacceleration with inflation.  It is easy to make the hawkish case for the Fed as we are still expecting rising wages from labor disputes, higher energy prices, and a gradual weakening of the labor market.
by Edward Moya
Brent Crude - Oil looking a little tired as gas prices pare gains
Oil prices have risen more than 20% since late June, buoyed by the actions of OPEC+ and the unilateral additional cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, both of which have been extended to September. Furthermore, the economic outlook has become less bleak as countries have been seen to be making progress on inflation, allowing for the end - or near-end - of tightening.
by Craig Erlam
GBP/USD - UK economy beats expectations in Q2, US PPI stronger but not a concern
UK economy grew 0.5% in June, 0.2% in Q2 (QoQ) US headline and core PPIs rose 0.3% last month, more than expected GBPUSD steady near major support zone The UK economy showed further resilience toward the end of the second quarter, buoyed by better weather. The cost-of-living crisis has clearly been an immense drag on the economy and due to its nature, will have hit some households much harder than others. But overall, consumer activity has been very resilient which has ultimately stopped the ec
by Craig Erlam
Dollar pares losses after hotter-than-expected PPI
US PPI posts first gain in three months (last month revised to a flat reading) Dollar eyes a fourth week of strength 10-year Treasury rises 2.9bps to 4.135%; November rate hike odds rise to 26.3% The dollar pared losses after supplier inflation in July came in mostly hotter-than-expected.  Hold your horses on calls that the Fed is done raising rates.  This was a notable increase for producer prices and that could very well keep the risk of a November Fed rate hike on the table. The producer-pr
by Edward Moya
British pound edges higher after GDP surprise
UK GDP rises 0.2% US inflation accelerates by 3.2% The British pound is slightly higher earlier on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2706, up 0.24%. UK GDP surprises to the upside The week wrapped up on a high note in the UK, as the economy grew by 0.2% q/q in the second quarter.
by Kenneth Fisher
While the yen weakens again towards 145 against the dollar, EUR/JPY rises to highest levels since 2008
Japan last intervened in October when dollar-yen prices were at 150 Fed rate hike odds fall to 10% for the September 20th meeting Japan's material inflation data continues fell to 3.6% from a year earlier, lowest reading since March 2021 The dollar weakened against most of its major trading partners after soft inflation data supported the Fed's case to keep rates on hold in September.  Yen traders watched global stocks surge, which put a dent in demand for safe-havens.  Dollar-yen is now rallyi
by Edward Moya
GBP/USD dips lower as US inflation rises
US inflation accelerates by 3.2% UK GDP expected to rise 0.1% in Q2 The British pound showed some strength earlier but reversed directions and lost ground after the US inflation report. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2725, up 0.05%. US headline CPI rises, core rate ticks lower The US inflation report was somewhat of a mix, but most important was that both headline and core inflation were within expectations.
by Kenneth Fisher
Dollar drops as inflation continues to cool; Fed September skip confirmed   
Dollar falls as Fed rate hike odds soften to 10% for September and 20.2% in November US Annual CPI rose from 3.0% in June to 3.2% in July, snapping a streak of 12 consecutive declines Core CPI (ex-food/energy) fell to 4.7% year-over-year, lowest reading since October 2021 No surprises from the July CPI report After a roughly in-line inflation report, Wall Street remained optimistic that the Fed won’t need to raise rates in September.  Headline inflation rose but that was mainly due to the large
by Edward Moya
Gold - Sell-off stalls ahead of June lows as traders eye the US CPI
A strong inflation number could send it lower again Major support zone below Gold appears to be stabilizing a little ahead of the US CPI report, with traders paying close attention to the outcome as it could ultimately determine whether the yellow metal breaks the June lows or rebounds higher. Prices have been pressured by rising yields and a stronger dollar recently as traders have pushed back expectations around rate cuts for next year. While they appear confident that the Fed is done with ti
by Craig Erlam
Brent Crude - Momentum wanes as oil trades around 2023 highs
Stalling around 2023 highs Divergence a sign of waning momentum Oil prices have stabilized again today after another choppy, albeit broadly bullish, start to the week. They're now trading around their highest levels for the year and you have to wonder whether the recent announcements from Saudi Arabia and Russia, combined with better economic prospects, will be enough to lift the price to new 2023 highs, and above $90 in the case of Brent. Are we seeing some profit-taking? One thing that is
by Craig Erlam
AUD/USD rebounds as inflation expections dip
Australia's inflation expectations ease US inflation is expected to rise to 3.3% The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Thursday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6552, up 0.37%. Australian inflation expectations ease  Australia's consumer inflation expectations dipped in August to 4.9%, down from 5.3% in July.
by Kenneth Fisher
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