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January blues
It's been something of a downbeat day in the markets, something we may see more of this morning as the January blues kick in. The omicron relief trade appears to have played out now and attention has quickly shifted back to the interest rates dilemma, with the economy performing well but not firing on all cylinders, the labor market extremely tight and inflation at risk of getting out of control. Central bank policymakers would ordinarily like to be more patient during this stage of the recove
Jan 6, 2022 by Craig Erlam
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Euro yawns as German factory orders jump
The euro is showing little movement, as it trades just above the 1.13 line. German Factory Orders recovered in November, with a robust gain of 3.7% m/m. This follows a sharp decline of -5.8% m/m in October.
Jan 6, 2022 by Kenneth Fisher
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Oil and gold trading sideways
Oil is bid despite its fall today Oil prices were almost unchanged overnight, despite a massive 10 million barrel increase in US Gasoline Inventories, distillates rising by 4.4 million barrels and Crude Inventories falling only 2.5 million barrels, with Cushing Stocks climbing by about the same. That should all have been bad news for oil prices, implying that omicron is weighing on mobility and consumption.
Jan 6, 2022 by Jeffrey Halley
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The US dollar holds steady
US dollar recovers on hawkish FOMC minutes The US dollar spent most of last night under pressure from the omi-gone rally, until the release of the hawkish FOMC minutes. The committee members felt inflation risks were more persistent and to the upside, and there was general agreement that the taper should be accelerated with three tentative rate hikes pencilled in. With US yields rising after that, the US dollar reversed most of its losses intra-day, leaving it only slightly lower and marking th
Jan 6, 2022 by Jeffrey Halley
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Asia follows Wall Street south
Hawkish FOMC minutes send equity markets lower Wall Street had a torrid session as a hawk FOMC minutes highlighted the amount of post-omicron speculative longs positions that were out there. Technology came in for particular attention, the Nasdaq suffering its biggest one-day drop in nearly a year.
Jan 6, 2022 by Jeffrey Halley
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The street was clearly long Omi-gone
US tech stocks sink after FOMC minutes Greetings from day four of managed isolation in New Zealand, and no, I’m not a tennis player. All the chatter overnight was about the implosion on tech stocks in New York after seemingly hawkish FOMC minutes from the December meeting.
Jan 6, 2022 by Jeffrey Halley
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Oil pares gains after EIA, gold rises
Oil Crude prices tentatively pared gains after the EIA crude oil inventory report posted a smaller-than-expected headline draw, while gasoline demand plummeted the most since April 2020.  The EIA report was a mixed bag that didn’t have anything to change the tight outlook for the oil market. A headline draw of 2.14 million barrels last week was the sixth consecutive decline, but the focus was on big builds with gasoline and distillate inventories, which were largely due to seasonal factors. Bo
Jan 5, 2022 by Edward Moya
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Tech slide deepens as yields rise, ADP impresses, bitcoin steadies
Tech stocks remained under pressure after a robust private payrolls report sent Treasury yields higher. Equity traders are still betting on a strong US economy and that has them rotating out of big-tech and embracing cyclicals.  Ahead of what will likely be some rather hawkish Fed minutes, with the exception of the rotation trade, US stocks are struggling for direction.  The first half of the year will be all about a strong US growth outlook that should benefit cyclical stocks, but a sustained p
Jan 5, 2022 by Edward Moya
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Euro recaptures 1.13, German PMI declines
The euro started the New Year with sharp losses, but the currency has rebounded on Wednesday, posting gains of 0.44% and punching above the 1.13 level. German Services PMI contracts Germany's service sector showed contraction in December, falling below the 50-level for the first time in eight months. The PMI fell from 52.7 to 48.7 points.
Jan 5, 2022 by Kenneth Fisher
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Oil running on empty gold eyes FOMC
Oil running on fumes The oil price recovery may be starting to run on fumes after OPEC+ confirmed what markets had been pricing in over the last couple of weeks; that omicron won't have an overly detrimental impact on crude demand. In continuing its 400,000 barrels per day, monthly increases, the group offered further comfort to investors that the economic impact is likely to be minor and short-lived. The question now is whether the group can meet quotas which have reportedly been a challenge
Jan 5, 2022 by Craig Erlam
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Equities push higher as interest rate concerns resurface
Another positive session in Europe on Wednesday, as investors take the wobble in US tech a day earlier in their stride. Markets remain optimistic about Omicron Investors eventually got their Santa rally and it seems that optimism has carried through into the new year. Evidence that omicron is not as severe as previous strains, despite spreading far faster, is offering hope that restrictions will be short-lived and the economic damage minimal. As I've said previously though, we can often read
Jan 5, 2022 by Craig Erlam
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Pound edges higher on Johnson Covid remarks
The British pound has posted slight gains on Wednesday. GBP/USD rose to 1.3557 on Tuesday, marking a 7-week high. Johnson says no to further restrictions The British pound ended 2021 on a strong note, gaining more than 2% in the last two weeks of the year.
Jan 5, 2022 by Kenneth Fisher
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Oil rallies, gold gains ground
OPEC+ can’t dent oil Oil prices rallied overnight, despite OPEC+ announcing its pre-planned 400,000 bpd increase in monthly production. The omicron is omi-gone trade continued to hold sway, with its brighter outlook for world growth and oil consumption lifting oil prices, aided by larger than expected drawdown from private US API Crude Inventories.   Brent crude rose by 1.60% to USD 80.15 overnight, with WTI climbing by 1.60% as well to USD 77.20 a barrel.
Jan 5, 2022 by Jeffrey Halley
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A mixed US dollar performance
US dollar gets lift from rising US bond yields The US dollar had a mixed night, rising versus the major currencies and the Asian currency grouping, as firm US bond yields sparked yield differential nerves. Conversely, the same post-omicron sentiment propelling stock markets and bond yields higher had a positive effect on the usual sentiment barometers.
Jan 5, 2022 by Jeffrey Halley
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Asia follows New York’s value versus growth
Asia markets mixed Overnight, Wall Street went looking for the winners in an inflationary environment and as a result, loaded up on the Dow Jones at the expense of the Nasdaq, mostly on the premise the Fed inflation hunting will resume as the global recovery bids omicron goodbye. The S&P 500 was almost unchanged at -0.06%, but the Nasdaq tumbled by 1.33%, while the Dow Jones added 0.58%.
Jan 5, 2022 by Jeffrey Halley
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Markets flirt with the inflation trade
US treasury yields head higher Seemingly, the sharp rise in US yields this week has sparked a move from growth to value, or as I put it, from the Nasdaq to the Dow Jones. Whether it lasts is another thing altogether, with such rotations running out of steam over the past 18 months, without really ever gathering momentum.
Jan 5, 2022 by Jeffrey Halley
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Commodities and Cryptos: Oil rallies after OPEC+ agrees on more production, Gold rebounds, Bitcoin steady
Oil Crude prices are rising again as OPEC+ grows more confident that the global crude demand outlook will only take a limited hit from the omicron variant.  The plan to gradually return production can move forward as OPEC+ anticipates a tighter market in the first quarter.  When you factor in that many countries are struggling to hit their quotas, even Russia, the oil market should expect this lack of capacity will keep prices heading higher throughout the year. WTI crude is back above many ke
Jan 4, 2022 by Edward Moya
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