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Markets Weekly Outlook - Central Banks to Rule the Roost

Federal Reserve's Upcoming Decision: Markets are split on whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 bps. Key data releases from China, Japan, the UK, and the US will shape market sentiment and potentially set the tone for Q4 2024. The DXY is nearing a critical support level, and its direction could determine the US Dollar's trajectory ahead of the US election. Read More: Germany 30 Technical: A potential bearish reversal looms Week in Review: Market Participants Left with More Questions As t

13-09-2024 14:06 GMT by Zain Vawda

NZ dollar dips on soft NZ manufacturing data

The New Zealand dollar is slightly lower on Friday after sharp gains a day earlier. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6163 at the time of writing, down 0.27% on the day.

13-09-2024 08:17 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

NZD/JPY Technical: Another potential falling knife as Fed and BoJ looms next week

The CME FedWatch tool has suggested a total of 250 bps Fed funds rate cuts through September next year, to bring the Fed funds rate to 2.75%-3.00%. An upbeat BoJ’s monetary policy statement next Friday may trigger another round of JPY strength. Watch the key levels of 83.80 and 91.60 on the NZD/JPY. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report “JPY crosses face another round of potential downside pressure as NFP looms” published on 6 September 2024. Click here for a recap.

13-09-2024 07:28 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Euro rises after ECB cuts interest rates

The euro has extended its gains on Friday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.1091 in the European session at the time of writing, up 0.13% today.

13-09-2024 05:08 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Germany 30 Technical: A potential bearish reversal looms

The recent rebound from its 10 September low of 18,186 has faced a hurdle to clear above its 20-day moving average. Several key elements are advocating for a potential short to medium-term bearish reversal. Watch the key resistance at 18,660. After the 9.4% drop seen in the Germany 30 CFD Index (a proxy for the DAX futures) from the 12 July 2024 high to the 5 August 2024 low, its price actions have recouped all its prior losses and revisited its current all-time high area at 18,930/18,994.

12-09-2024 21:59 GMT by Kelvin Wong

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 - Caution Following PPI, Technical Hurdles Ahead

Wall Street indexes paused after Wednesdays rally as Core PPI came in hot. Moderna shares plunged 17.8% due to lower-than-expected sales projections. Nasdaq 100 shows potential for upward movement, but technical hurdles persist. Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Flirts with All-Time Highs. Will US CPI Prove the Catalyst for a Breakout? The major Wall Street Indexes have all taken a breather today following a significant rally on Wednesday.

12-09-2024 14:03 GMT by Zain Vawda

NZ dollar drifting ahead of manufacturing data

The New Zealand dollar is showing little movement on Thursday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6139 at the time of writing, up 0.05% on the day. New Zealand’s Manufacturing PMI expected to improve New Zealand’s manufacturing sector has been in the doldrums, as the manufacturing PMI has posted 17 consecutive declines.

12-09-2024 10:23 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD edges higher as inflation expectations eases

The Australian dollar has posted slight gains on Thursday. In the European session, AUD/USD is up 0.16%, trading at 0.6684 at the time of writing. Australia’s inflation expectations dip to 4.4% Australia’s consumer inflation expectations eased to 4.4% in September, down slightly from 4.5% in August but above the forecast of 4.1%.

12-09-2024 09:10 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Euro flat ahead of ECB decision

The euro continues to show limited movement and is almost unchanged on Thursday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.1010 in the North American session at the time of writing. ECB expected to deliver 25 bps cut The European Central Bank meets later today and the markets are expecting a rate cut of 25 basis points, which bring down the key rate to 3.5%.

12-09-2024 05:05 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Holds Recent Gains on Positive ETF Flows

Bitcoin prices rebounded due to increased ETF inflows, ending an 8-day outflow streak. BlackRock warns of continued market volatility, citing recession concerns, US election anxiety, and investor sell-offs. On-chain data indicates decreased investor engagement and trading volumes in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Flirts with All-Time Highs. Will US CPI Prove the Catalyst for a Breakout? Bitcoin prices have recovered last week's losses as ETF flows snap an 8 day streak of outflo

11-09-2024 13:41 GMT by Zain Vawda

USD/JPY drops below 141, US CPI drops to 2.5%

The Japanese yen has extended its gains on Wednesday. USD/JPY fell as low as 140.70, its lowest level this year, before paring much of the losses.

11-09-2024 12:47 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD steady after US inflation drops to 2.5%

The Australian dollar dipped lower earlier but has recovered. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6655, up 0.04%. Smaller Fed cut more likely after drop in CPI The eagerly-anticipated US inflation report came in as expected and didn’t have much impact on the movement of the US dollar.

11-09-2024 12:45 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

Gold Technical: Poised for a potential bullish breakout as US CPI looms

In the past four weeks, Gold (XAU/USD) has traded in a tight range environment below US$2,532 key intermediate range resistance. Positive momentum reading and a major bearish breakdown seen in the 10-year US Treasury real yield may trigger a bullish breakout in Gold (XAU/USD). Watch the key medium-term support at US$2,435 for Gold (XAU/USD).

11-09-2024 07:41 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Gold (XAU/USD) Flirts with All-Time Highs. Will US CPI Prove the Catalyst for a Breakout?

Gold prices are inching higher as the market awaits the US CPI release. Market reaction to the CPI data will depend on whether rate cut expectations are already priced in. From a technical analysis perspective, the gold chart may be forming a double top pattern ahead of the CPI release. Most Read: Brent Crude – Oil Slides Below $70 a Barrel, First Time Since December 2021 Gold prices inched higher in Asian trade as market participants brace for the US CPI release.

11-09-2024 06:17 GMT by Zain Vawda

Brent Crude - Oil Slides Below $70 a Barrel, First Time Since December 2021

Brent crude oil prices dropped below $70 a barrel, the lowest since December 2021. OPEC+ downgraded 2024 oil demand growth forecasts, primarily due to weakness and concern around China. Technical analysis suggests potential further decline in oil prices. Is there more room to the downside?

10-09-2024 11:57 GMT by Zain Vawda

Japanese yen gains ground, US inflation looms

The Japanese yen is in positive territory on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 142.63 at the time of writing, down 0.37% on the day. Will BoJ stay on the sidelines until 2025? Bank of Japan meetings used to be sleeper events but that has changed now that the central bank has exited its negative rate policy and is likely to continue tightening.

10-09-2024 11:29 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD steady as UK wage growth eases, GDP next

The British pound has edged lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3055, down 0.14% on the day. UK wage growth drops to 2-year low UK wage growth eased in the three months to July, an encouraging sign for the Bank of England as it looks to continue lowering rates. Average earnings excluding bonuses climbed 5.1% y/y, down from 5.4% in the previous period and in line with the market estimate.

10-09-2024 10:43 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

AUD/USD shrugs after weak confidence data

The Australian dollar continues to have a quiet week. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6671 in the European session, up 0.17% today at the time of writing. With the Australian economy sputtering, it should come as no surprise that today’s confidence indicators pointed downward.

10-09-2024 07:37 GMT by Kenneth Fisher

GBP/USD Rises on Robust Labor Data - Challenges Ahead for the BoE

UK labor data beats expectations, with regular pay rising by 5.1% and employment increasing by 265k. BoE faces challenges in balancing strong employment figures with moderating wage growth and rate cut hopes. US CPI and PPI, and BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden's comments, could impact GBP/USD's trajectory. Most Read: Is EUR/USD Vulnerable Ahead of ECB Meeting…? DXY to Play a Major Role The GBP benefitted following a positive UK labor data release this morning.

10-09-2024 05:45 GMT by Zain Vawda

Is EUR/USD Vulnerable Ahead of ECB Meeting…? DXY to Play a Major Role

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded since Friday's jobs data release, driven by altered rate cut expectations. EUR/USD is particularly affected by the DXY recovery, with the Euro's recent strength potentially waning due to poor German data and shifting rate cut expectations. The DXY's technical analysis suggests further upside potential, with immediate resistance at 102.16 and 102.60.

09-09-2024 11:56 GMT by Zain Vawda

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