Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Analysis: Trump Impact, Whale Activity & Price Predictions

• Bitcoin's price dipped despite initial gains following President Trump's crypto event appearance.
• New "whale" investors have accumulated a large amount of Bitcoin, suggesting potential for a near-term price increase, but on-chain data shows weakening demand and liquidity.
• Bitcoin ETF flows turn negative after four consecutive days of gains as Gold ETFs thrive. A change in market dynamics?

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Bitcoin failed to maintain the bullish momentum from yesterday as it finally broke above the 200-day MA. This all came about in anticipation of US President Trump’s speech at Blockwork’s crypto digital asset summit.

On Thursday, President Donald Trump shared a video at a crypto event, showing his support for cryptocurrency and claiming it will boost economic growth. However, he didn’t announce any new policies as attendees had expected.

The question though is why did Bitcoin fail to hold onto the gains made in anticipation of Trump's address?

The answer is simple, markets were buoyed by hopes that President Trump would address issues like debanking or crypto taxes, possibly with a new executive order. However, he didn’t announce any new actions and simply repeated what his administration has already done.

This was already priced in and with no new proclamations by the President, markets seemed to have lost its bullish momentum. Markets have however started today with a bit of a bullish move with the world's largest cryptocurrency up around 0.3% at the time of writing.

Crypto Heatmap, March 21, 2025

A new group of wealthy Bitcoin investors is diving into the cryptocurrency. Since late November, they’ve collected over a million Bitcoins, including 200,000 just last month.

Research from CryptoQuant shows these “new whales,” each holding at least 1,000 Bitcoin, are mostly beginners who’ve owned their coins for less than six months. They’re not in it for the long haul—they’re here for quick profits.

Market experts say when big players buy like this, it’s usually because they expect prices to rise soon, not years down the line, based on their fast-paced buying strategy.

Will such a move come to fruition? Let us take a look at what Glassnode on-chain data tells us.

Bitcoin’s price has lost around 30% from its highs with Glassnode stating that liquidity continues to contract across on-chain and spot markets, with net capital inflows grinding to a halt, and exchange inflows slowing down.

Meanwhile, long-term holders are staying inactive, adding to the view of a slow market with little movement in prices.

Liquidity is shrinking, contributing to the drop in value. New money flowing into Bitcoin has slowed significantly, with its Realized Cap growing by just +0.67% per month.

This leads to two main takeaways:

• There isn’t enough new money coming in to push prices higher.
• Volatility is expected to stay high as the market shifts from being profit-driven to a more balanced state.

The ‘Hot Supply’ metric is one way to measure active capital in the market. It tracks the amount of wealth in coins that are one week old or less, acting as a gauge for coins ready to be traded.

Currently, the wealth held by the Hot Supply group has dropped from 5.9% of the circulating supply to just 2.8%. This is a more than 50% decrease in liquid coins, showing a reduced interest in trading and speculation.

A similar pattern is seen in exchange inflows, where daily Bitcoin inflows have fallen from +58.6k BTC at the market peak to +26.9k BTC now, a drop of over 54%. This matches the earlier noted decline in investor sentiment and market capital flows.

The similar scale of decline in both Hot Supply and Exchange Inflows highlights weaker overall demand in the market. This does not point to an imminent rally, does it?

Bitcoin ETF flows marked a fourth consecutive day of net inflows with $11.8 million added. This is a small amount considering what we have seen in the past with only Bitwise’s BITB, Grayscale GBTC and BTC recording inflows.

This four-day run was snapped on March 20 however, with net outflows of $6.4 million. This decline in ETF flows support Glassnode's data of weaker overall demand in the market.

This also comes as Gold ETF flows have recently surpassed Bitcoin ETF flows. To read more about this, read: Gold Price Outlook: ETF Flows, Central Bank Buying, and XAU/USD Price Targets.Is this the start of a broader market shift and risks continue to rise in global markets?

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) from a technical standpoint on the daily timeframe remains in a bearish trend.

A daily candle close above the 90000 handle will be needed for a change in structure and this remains some distance away at present.

Wednesday did see a rise above the 200-day MA which should have been a precursor for further gains. However yesterday saw a significant pullback as Bitcoin finished the day 3.12% down and back below the 200-day MA.

The 85000 handle is key now as the 200-Day MA rests here as well.

The 14-period RSI also shows signs that the bearish trend remains intact. The 50 neutral level is serving as resistance and a break above is also needed to show a shift in momentum.

A move above 85000 now faces resistance at 86845 before the 90000 handle comes into focus.

Looking at areas of support and we have the 82133 handle before the 80000 psychological handle comes back into focus.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart, March 21, 2025

Support

• 82133
• 80000
• 78197

Resistance

• 85000
• 86845
• 90000

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