BTC/USD: Is Bitcoin Back?

• Bitcoin hits $31,000, highest levels since July
• Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy Bitcoin position turns positive (average $29,582 purchase price)
• Major bond market yield reversal keeps cryptos broadly supported (Eth up 3.4%, Solana up 2.4%, and Dogecoin up 4.9%)

Bitcoin is rallying alongside tech stocks as the bond market has a major reversal.  Today’s rally that took prices to a three-month high is not about spot Bitcoin ETF optimism but about a significant reversal in the dollar and 10-year Treasury yield.  Bitcoin could continue to rally if investors continue expect risk appetite prefers risky assets over Treasuries.  The key for Bitcoin won’t just be positive ETF news but will require a peak in rates to be confidently priced in.  There is still a risk that investors might prefer stocks versus cryptos.  As long as the Fed is done with this hiking cycle and soft landing hopes remain, that should be a positive backdrop for Bitcoin.

If Bitcoin is able to rally above the $31,500 level, bullish momentum could support a rally towards the $35,700 region, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the collapse record highs ($68,772) to this cycle’s low ($15,278).

What would really get the crypto world going again is we start to new money become highly committed. Endorsements from Michael Saylor, Elon Musk, or even Cathy Wood will do little to attract new investors.  It is unlikely that Bitcoin skeptics will be changing their tune anytime soon.

Some bitcoin supporters believe that the next halving in 162 days could potentially be the key catalysts to send Bitcoin back above the $40,000 level.  A lot needs to go well for crypto, but at the very least it seems regulation won’t kill the space.

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