Commodities and Cryptos stuck in wait-and-see mode

• OPEC must be frustrated oil prices have yet to stabilize
• Gold struggles after hawkish Fed speak
• Bitcoin vulnerable but still holding lower boundaries of key range

Oil

Crude prices are in no man’s land as energy traders look to see what happens with both debt ceiling talks and with US and China tensions.

Chevron’s acquisition of driller PDC Energy will help their operations in the US production basins, but that doesn’t mean we will see an immediate impact with US output over the short-term.   

It might be hard for oil to make a major move if debt ceiling talks remain ongoing and before we get Tuesday’s flash PMI readings for the US and Europe. Oil is wavering and that should continue as long traders await a major update with the current macro backdrop. 

Gold

Gold is hovering below the $2000 level as Wall Street awaits a meaningful update with debt ceiling negotiations and to see how bad tensions get between the US and China. 

Until we see market stress, gold is drifting lower.  President Biden’s meeting with speaker McCarthy will happen well after the US close and that could lead to some defensive bets that support investor pessimism that a deal will get easily done.

Gold will likely remain a choppy trade as we head towards the X-date, but if DC is able to get a deal done early this week, that could lead to a decent selloff for bullion towards the $1950 region.      

Bitcoin

Crypto traders are not sure how Bitcoin will behave throughout the next several days of debt ceiling negotiations.  Congress has raised the debt ceiling 78 times since 1960, which means the US has always paid its bills on time.  The risk of default is very small but if it were to happen that could feel like an uppercut to risk appetite which would send cryptos sharply lower.  Bitcoin appears content to trade near the lower boundaries of its recent trading range between $26,500 and $30,000.  

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