Oil gets bullish alongside gold, Bitcoin wavers

• Russia claims to come close to delivering on oil cut pledge in April
• Gold gets groove back as debt ceiling worries simmer
• Bitcoin hovers near bottom of recent trading range

Oil

Crude prices went on a rollercoaster ride as energy traders watched a deteriorating demand outlook get countered by some bullish supply news from both the Biden administration and Russia.  Oil was lower after disappointing trade from China supported concerns their recovery post-Covid lockdowns continues to disappoint. WTI crude pared losses after reports that the Biden administration is looking to refill the SPR after maintenance is complete later this year. 

Everyone knew the White House needed to refill the SPR sooner than later given reserves are at a four-decade low.  It looks like the Biden administration is counting on a recession in the second half of the year, which in theory should mean oil prices will remain heavy. The Biden administration was initially planning on filling up the reserve when prices were around the $70 region.

Oil turned positive after reports that Russia almost hit their production cut pledge in April.  Energy traders know that Saudi Arabia would do what is necessary to keep oil prices supported, the doubts are with Russia and some other countries like the UAE.  If Russia is delivering on these production cut promises, it might be safe to expect they will deliver again if more cuts are needed. 

Gold

Gold prices are rising ahead of a couple big macro risks, the beginning of a drawn out debt ceiling negotiations and ahead of an inflation report that could show the Fed may need to keep rates higher for longer.  Gold is entering a win-win scenario as a hot inflation report will justify higher rates for longer that will cripple growth prospects and trigger a stock market selloff.  A cooling round of inflation data points could vindicate calls that the Fed is done tightening and support Fed rate cuts to happen later in the year.  Gold is trying to recapture those record highs and a plethora of risks could easily strong safe-haven demand over the short-term.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin was around in 2011 when the S&P downgraded the credit rating of the US.  At the time, no one was closely following cryptos, but it is interesting to see prices were dragged down during the summer of 2011. If market stress becomes a growing theme as debt ceiling talks continue, it will be interesting to see how Bitcoin performs.  The macro backdrop has been mostly unchanged over the past couple weeks, with a big focus on Binance and whether people are seriously storing cryptos in cold wallets. 

Bitcoin appears to be stuck in a trading range, but if we have a de-risking moment on Wall Street will that be enough to send cryptos toward the lows seen in mid-March.     

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