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Oil rallies, Gold’s record run ends for now, Cryptos shine

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  • Oil shrugs off OPEC demand warnings
  • Gold tumbles after failing to reach record highs
  • Ethereum momentum remains post Shapella upgrade

Oil

Oil’s fourth weekly advance has been mostly relentless as the OPEC+ output cut has sent global oil markets to a very deep supply deficit. The risk of a couple million-barrel deficit in the second half of the year should keep prices supported regardless of whatever noise emerges from the Fed contemplating another quarter-point or so in rate hikes.

Energy traders should feel confident this market will remain tight. ​ Next week, they will pay special attention to China’s major economic releases that include first quarter GDP that should show an impressive recovery as the economy reopens from Covid.

oil

Gold

Gold’s attempt at record territory failed after both core retail sales readings declined less than expected and hawkish Fed comments raised the risk that the Fed could do more tightening beyond May and that rates might need to stay higher for longer.

Over the short-term, gold could remain very volatile in both directions here. The start of earnings season has been relatively upbeat for the outlook for and that has boosted soft landing calls. In order for inflation to be conquered, we will need to see economic pain and that should support the bullish case for gold.

Crypto

Bitcoin and Ethereum are breaking out here.  Bitcoin has recaptured the $30,000 level, a pivotal level that was an entry level for many institutional investors in 2021. Ethereum is above $2,100 after a successful Shanghai upgrade.  Ethereum is now fully Proof-of-Stake and this milestone did not trigger a sell the news type reaction.

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Contributing Author at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya was a Senior Market Analyst with OANDA for the Americas from November 2018 to November 2023.

His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Prior to OANDA he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news.

Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business, cheddar news, and CoinDesk TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most respected global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Seeking Alpha, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal.

Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
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