Oil steady, gold surges

Oil is steady but upside risks remain

The prospect of looser restrictions has boosted the price of oil recently and yet Brent still finds itself trading around the middle of its $90-$100 range. The US inflation data last week gave crude another boost as traders were left to dream again about a possible soft landing if the data continues that way and the Fed raises rates less.

There’s still a long way to go though and much of the world won’t be so lucky, assuming it isn’t already too late for the US. But further signs of inflation peaking will no doubt be welcome; you just wonder whether it will also be the catalyst for oil to break $100 again, further complicating the growth outlook once more.

Gold’s spectacular rebound

It’s been a fantastic 10 days for gold, with the yellow metal going from at risk of breaking below $1,620 support to rallying almost 10% to its highest level in almost three months. It’s been quite the ride, fueled by signals from the central bank that the next hike could be less aggressive and then that inflation report.

Can gold hold onto this momentum and break $1,800, taking it into territory that it hasn’t traded within since late-Spring, early-summer? It’s a big ask but if the data is generous and the dollar continues to give back some of its enormous gains from the past year, there’s every chance gold could build momentum from here.

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