Week Ahead – A busy week ahead! FOMC minutes, US retail sales, UK Jobs/CPI, RBNZ Decides and Japan GDP/CPI

US

With Wall Street very confident that the Fed won’t be raising rates in September, the focus shifts to how strong is the economy and whether it is too robust and if that could sparking fear that inflation might reaccelerate.

The economic data starts on Tuesday with a July retail sales report that should show spending picked up from a month ago, which was boosted by Amazon’s Prime Day.  Also on Tuesday is the Empire manufacturing report which should show August activity remains weak and the release of July’s import price index, which should show a decent rebound, but that comes after prices have steadily plunged since the summer. On Wednesday, housing data should show both starts and building permits rebounded in July, alongside improving industrial production data. Thursday focuses on jobless claims and whether the labor market continues to cool and if the Philly Fed business outlook remains downbeat.

On Wednesday, The FOMC minutes for the July 26th policy decision will be released, but that might not be as market moving as Fed swaps are very confident that the Fed will keep rates on hold.  Fed’s Kashkari has the lone scheduled appearance on Tuesday.  His last comments came a month ago, emphasizing that entrenched inflation could prompt the Fed to hike further.

Earnings for the week include Home Depot, Cava Group, Target, Cisco, Walmart, Applied Materials, and Deere & Co.

Eurozone

There’s no shortage of economic releases next week but there isn’t one that stands out as a potential game-changer. The only one that has the potential to fill that role is the final HICP inflation numbers on Friday and history would suggest the numbers tend to fall largely in line with expectations which is why it isn’t considered tier one. That aside we have some surveys on Tuesday which will be of interest and GDP and employment data on Wednesday.

UK

Next week is the big data drop for the UK, with the jobs report on Tuesday, inflation on Wednesday and retail sales on Friday. There’s no doubt about which the headline act will be considering the rare and welcome surprise we were treated to last month. A below forecast reading on both the headline and core inflation readings came as a great relief and a repeat performance could see interest rate expectations pared back further. That said, there’s still a long way to go and as it stands, markets are positioned for rates not to fall in the UK until the third quarter of next year.

Russia

PPI data is released on Wednesday and follows the CPI release last week which was not as bad as feared, although it did tick higher from June. Further evidence of inflationary pressures building could tempt the CBR to raise interest rates again.

South Africa

A few data releases of note next week with unemployment on Tuesday and retail sales on Wednesday. The central bank has raised rates aggressively over the last two years which will take a toll on the economy and may show up in the figures next week. The tightening cycle may now be over but the pain may still be to come.

Turkey

No major economic releases or events next week.

Switzerland

Another quiet week with PPI data released on Tuesday the only notable event.

China

A lot of attention will remain on Country Garden, as the struggling property firm is at risk of default.  It is unclear what billionaire Chair Yang Yuiyan will be willing to do.

Despite some recent soft economic data points, the PBOC might keep its one-year rate steady at 2.65% for a second straight month, following June’s 10 basis point cut.  This is likely to be a tactical pause that paves the way for a September cut.  Also on Tuesday, three key data releases will be watched: July industrial production will likely show activity ticked lower from a month ago to 4.3%, Retail sales is expected to increase from 3.1% to 4.0%, and investments in fixed assets are expected to hold steady at 3.8%.

On Tuesday, we will have new home prices for July.

On the earnings front, key results are expected from Tencent, CSL, CNOOC, ITC, JD.com, and HKEX.

India

The key highlight will be the July inflation report, which should so inflation heated back up over 6%.  The surge in pricing pressures isn’t expected to persist, but it could keep the pressure on the RBI in delivering hawkish holds.

The release of trade data and wholesale prices are also expected this week.

Australia

The week ahead contains a few key economic reports.  On Tuesday, second quarter wage price data is expected to show small increases both on a quarterly and annual basis, rising 1.0% and 3.8% respectively. Wednesday contains the release of the Westpac Leading index and Thursday has the employment report.  The July employment change is expected to see softer job growth at 15,000, while the unemployment rate ticks higher to 3.6%.

New Zealand

The RBNZ is expected to keep rates steady at 5.50%, which should be the peak in this tightening cycle.  Since the last policy meeting, inflation has come down, unemployment has risen, and consumer confidence has further weakened.

Japan

This will be a huge week for data in Japan as we get key GDP and inflation. Tuesday’s preliminary Q2 GDP reading should show growth improved, but mainly driven by exports and not domestic demand. The Q2 Annualized GDP q/q reading should improve from 2.7% to 3.2%, while the GDP deflator surges from 2.0% to 3.8%. Unless domestic consumption improves, any pivot from their loose monetary policy stance seems distant.

The national inflation report should show core inflation cooled in July, dropping from 3.3% to 3.1%. Upside surprises however could occur, so this release could be the headline event of the week.

The upcoming week also includes industrial production data, nationwide department sales, Core machine orders, and Tertiary industry index.

Singapore

The only key data will be the non-oil domestic exports for the month of July.

Saturday, Aug. 12

Economic Data/Events:

• Taiwanese presidential frontrunner Lai to visit US on his way to Paraguay inauguration

Sunday, Aug. 13

Economic Data/Events:

• German Chancellor Scholz summer interview on ZDF TV.

Monday, Aug. 14

Economic Data/Events:

• India wholesale prices, CPI, trade
• Finland CPI
• Poland CPI
• Arendalsuka, largest political gathering in Norway
• BOC releases Senior Loan Officer Survey.

Tuesday, Aug. 15

Economic Data/Events:

• US retail sales, empire manufacturing, business inventories, cross-border investment,
• Australia wage prices
• Canada CPI, existing home sales
• China medium-term lending, retail sales, industrial production, fixed-asset investment, FX net settlement
• Germany ZEW survey expectations
• Japan GDP, industrial production
• Mexico international reserves
• South Africa unemployment
• UK jobless claims, unemployment
• Sweden CPI
• Reserve Bank of Australia policy minutes.
• Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari speaks.

Wednesday, Aug. 16

Economic Data/Events:

• US FOMC minutes, housing starts, industrial production
• Canada housing starts
• China property prices
• Eurozone industrial production, GDP
• New Zealand (RBNZ) rate decision: expected to keep rates on hold at 5.50%
• South Africa retail sales
• UK CPI
• Norway’s $1.4 trillion sovereign wealth fund publishes results.
• Thailand Constitutional Court set to review election dispute.
• Germany Scholz at business lobby congress in Duesseldorf.

Thursday, Aug. 17

Economic Data/Events:

• US initial jobless claims, US Conf. Board leading index
• Australia unemployment
• Japan core machine orders, tertiary industry index, trade
• Norway rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 25bps to 4.00%
• Singapore trade
• Spain trade
• 55th ASEAN Economic Ministers’ Meeting in Indonesia.
• Germany Chancellor Scholz hosts Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen.

Friday, Aug. 18

Economic Data/Events:

• Japan CPI
• Taiwan GDP
• Eurozone CPI final July reading could confirm first drop since January
• US President Biden hosts South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese PM Kishida
• Germany Chancellor Scholz, Austrian Chancellor Nehammer hold news conference

Sovereign Rating Updates:

– Netherlands (Fitch)

– Switzerland (Moody’s)

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