Week Ahead – Central banks remain hawkish

US

Wall Street’s shortened trading week will be jam-packed with the FOMC minutes, more Fed speak, the flash PMIs and the final look at the University of Michigan’s inflation expectations.  

One of the key events of the trading week will be the Fed’s minutes from the November policy meeting.  Financial markets will want to know if the Fed still believes that the cost of taking too little action to bring down inflation likely outweighed the cost of taking too much action. The Fed is expected to downshift to a half-point rate-hiking pace in December, but that rate-hiking cycle could last longer if pricing pressures become more entrenched.  

US stock and bond markets will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving Day and will close early on Friday.  Traders will pay close attention to Black Friday shopping data, which will give the latest pulse on the health of the US consumer.  

EU 

The highlight next week may well be the monetary policy accounts, although, with a steady stream of central bank commentary since the last meeting and a raft of economic data, it’s hard to say just how impactful they’ll ultimately be.

The flash PMIs may tell a more interesting story of an economy heading for recession, while appearances from various policymakers – including President Christine Lagarde on Sunday – could fill in any gaps that haven’t already been filled.

UK 

It’s hard to get too excited about next week’s PMI data and central bank speak following the assessment from the OBR on the economic outlook, taking into consideration the latest fiscal squeeze. The UK is heading for its largest squeeze on living standards in six decades – a 7.1% decline – as interest rates continue to increase, taxes rise and the cost-of-living crisis intensifies. 

The only question that remains is how soon the BoE can pause its tightening among all of these other pressures. It alluded to the fact that markets are pricing in too much at the last meeting but at this moment, another 150 basis points are still priced in.

Russia

Another quiet week on the economic data side, with PPI numbers the only notable releases. The focus remains on its invasion of Ukraine and how it handles recent losses in Kherson.

South Africa

Next week is action-packed, with inflation data being released on Wednesday ahead of the latest SARB rate decision a day later. While the headline CPI is expected to ease slightly to 7.4%, from 7.5%, core is seen rising from 4.7% to 4.9%, meaning both remain far too high. The SARB inflation target is 3-6%. 

That is expected to push the SARB to hike interest rates again next week by 75 basis points, taking the repo rate to 7%. 

Turkey

The CBRT is expected to cut interest rates by another 150 basis points next week despite soaring inflation and a desperately weak currency. The latter has been managed with capital controls over the last couple of years and the new reserve-management system appears to be stabilizing it at record lows despite continued easing. The hope for President Erdogan is this can be carefully managed into next year’s election to at least give the impression of stability amid a potential deceleration in official inflation. 

Switzerland

No significant economic data or releases next week.

The central bank continues to drive home the message that FX intervention could occur on either side. An inter-meeting rate hike can also not be ruled out.

China

The focus stays on China’s Covid situation. China’s Covid cases are near record highs and that is threatening to delay any looser rules. Expectations are now for China to reopen sometime after March.

Investors widely expect Chinese commercial banks to keep both the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.65% and 4.30% respectively. The PBOC might be delaying rate cuts until next quarter as they are concerned about yuan weakness.  

India

It is expected to be a quiet week for India.  

Australia & New Zealand

This week is mostly about New Zealand as the RBNZ is expected to deliver its sixth straight half-point rate hike. Hot inflation and wage data are expected to prevent the central bank from downshifting to a slower pace of tightening. Investors hoping for the bank to pause tightening in February might be surprised if the policymakers are worried that inflation isn’t falling quickly enough.   

The lone release for Australia will be the preliminary PMI readings.  Last month the service sector fell into contraction territory while manufacturing activity continues to soften.  

Japan

A busy week filled with Japanese data, including preliminary PMI data for the services and manufacturing sectors in November and core CPI data for the Tokyo region in November. Inflation in Japan has hit a four-decade high and that is complicating what the BOJ wants to do.  Some economists are expecting Tokyo’s core inflation to slow for the first time since January but that is hardly the overall consensus.  

Singapore

The October inflation report is expected to show pricing pressures eased from 7.5% to 7.0%.  The final Q3 Q/Q GDP reading is expected to be revised a tick lower to 1.4%.

Economic Calendar

Saturday, Nov. 19

Economic Events

The APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting concludes

Fed’s Bostic speaks at the Southern Economic Association annual meeting in Florida

Sunday, Nov. 20

Events

World Cup begins with Qatar hosting Ecuador

ECBs Lagarde participates in formal dinner of European Roundtable for Industry

Monday, Nov. 21

Economic Data/Events

US Chicago Fed national activity index

China loan prime rates

Germany producer prices

New Zealand credit card spending

Sweden home prices, industry capacity utilization

Taiwan export orders, current account balance

Thailand GDP

The Bank of Japan announces the outright purchase amount of Japanese government securities

Ukraine President Zelenskiy speaks at NATO Parliamentary Assembly’s annual session

ECB’s Holzmann and Simkus speak at the Conference on European Economic Integration hosted by Austria’s central bank

Bank of Portugal Governor Centeno speaks at the CNN Portugal Summit

Bundesbank President Nagel speaks at an evening event of the ICFW Frankfurt business journalists’ club

Tuesday, Nov. 22

Economic Data/Events

US Richmond Fed manufacturing index

Canada retail sales

Euro area consumer confidence

Mexico retail sales, Banamex survey of economists

New Zealand trade

South Africa leading indicator

Turkey consumer confidence

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is on a state visit to the UK

The OECD releases its latest Economic Outlook

German Chancellor Scholz speaks at the SZ-Wirtschaftsgipfel conference in Berlin

ECB’s Holzmann speaks at the presentation of the Austrian National Bank’s financial stability report

Fed’s Mester gives speech on wages and inflation

Fed’s Bullard participates in a policy panel at the Central Bank of Chile’s annual conference

RBA’s Lowe speaks at the annual CEDA dinner

Wednesday, Nov. 23

Economic Data/Events

FOMC minutes of November meeting

US MBA mortgage applications, durable goods, initial jobless claims, preliminary PMIs, University of Michigan sentiment, new home sales

European Flash PMIs: France, Germany, UK

New Zealand central bank (RBNZ) rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 75bps to 4.25%

Australia PMIs

Mexico international reserves

Russia industrial production, monthly PPI, weekly CPI

Singapore CPI, GDP

South Africa CPI

Thailand trade balance

EIA crude oil inventory report

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz addresses the Bundestag on the country’s 2023 budget

ECB’s de Guindos speaks at the Encuentro del Sector Financiero in Madrid

Thursday, Nov. 24

Economic Data/Events

US stocks and bond markets closed for Thanksgiving holiday

Canada small business optimism

France business, manufacturing confidence

Germany IFO business climate

Japan PMIs, department store sales, leading index, machine tool orders

Russia gold and foreign-exchange reserves

Sweden central bank (Riksbank) rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 75bps to 2.50%

Turkey central bank (CBRT) rate decision: Expected to cut rates by 150bp to 9.00%

South Africa central bank (SARB) rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 75bps to 7.00%

Turkey real sector confidence

South Africa PPI

Mexico publishes monetary policy minutes

ECB publishes accounts of its October policy meeting

EU energy ministers hold an emergency meeting in Brussels

ECB’s Schnabel speaks at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference

Friday, Nov. 25

Economic Data/Events

US stock and bond markets close early

Retailers hope for a strong Black Friday performance

France Consumer confidence

Spain PPI

Sweden PPI

Germany GDP

Japan Tokyo CPI, PPI services

Mexico GDP, current account balance

New Zealand consumer confidence index, retail sales ex-inflation

Singapore industrial production

Thailand foreign reserves, forward contracts

Sovereign Rating Updates

Switzerland (Moody’s)

Turkey (Moody’s)

Poland (DBRS)

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